Moldova received the status of a candidate for membership in the European Union together with Ukraine in June 2022. However, the more than 30-year-old problem of Transnistria, the potential aggression of Russia and the Russian “fifth column” in the country became a threat to EU integration.
Brigadier General, Minister of Defense of the Republic of Moldova (2009-2014) Vitalie Marinuța and ex-head of intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Moldova Yuri Briceag visited the online.ua studio as part of the delegation of the Association of Veterans and Reservists of the Republic of Moldova.
They told online.ua correspondent Ivan Hrynevych how to solve the problem of Transnistria, what the main threat to Moldova is, and what threatens the country's European integration is.
This is the second part of the interview of Vitalie Marinuța and Yuri Briceag for online.ua. Read the first part here.
Moldova needs to get rid of its neutral mentality
On the eve of the new year, the director of Moldavian SIS [Security and Intelligence Service - Ed], Alexandru Musteață, said that in 2023 there is a threat of an attack by the Russian Federation, and this is not a matter of probability, but a matter of time. On January 14, the warhead of a Russian rocket fell on the territory of Moldova, and this happened for the third time. Yuri, tell me, is Moldova ready for a potential war? What steps can Moldova take after these incidents, apart from diplomatic ones?
Editor's note: after Musteață's statement, the SIS of Moldova clarified that Russia's goal of creating a land corridor in Transnistria is still relevant today, and a new Russian offensive in this direction may take place in 2023. At the same time, the implementation of this scenario depends on the course of the war in Ukraine.
YB: I hope that the pro-Russian channels and politicians who are still in the territory of Moldova will soon look for ways to leave for the Russian Federation as soon as possible. Because here [in Moldova, - ed] no one is happy with them. They want it.
Believe me, Mr Marinuța, and other colleagues who went through [the war] in 1992, no matter how many of us there are, many or few, and we will defend our country. We will not let the Russian Federation feel at home.
The best example for us is Ukraine, which is fighting for its independence and statehood. Therefore, they [Russians, - ed.] have no opportunity to seize the Republic of Moldova today, thanks to Ukraine.
VM: When you say: if you want peace, prepare for war, it doesn't sound very true somehow. If let's say, somewhere like 15 years ago, we would have said: let's invest more in the armed forces because one, two, or three things will happen, few people would have agreed to this matter.
I know from my own experience, because not so long ago, in 2012, as the Minister of Defense of the Republic of Moldova, he said, let's invest in our armed forces. Everyone said: “But everything is peaceful here; the neighbours are peaceful, no one is going to attack us.” We are a neutral country. Why? We don't need it.” Well, ten years have passed, and now in the Republic of Moldova, we have to think exactly like this. If we want peace, we must prepare for war.
We have to be ready. Here, I would like our government to do more in terms of mobilizing the economy and personnel, reservists’ training; and creating or entering into alliances.
We are now well helped by non-lethal equipment, and armored personnel carriers. We recently received three armoured personnel carriers from Germany, and there will be 16 more. But we must prepare in a complex.
The most important thing that the Republic of Moldova needs to do is to move away from the worldview of neutrality, that everything is fine with us, that no one will touch us, and that everything will be smooth sailing. No, it may not be.
It is necessary to prepare the mentality of people that this can happen, and when your mentality is ready, then you are ready to fight, as Ukraine is now.
I think that until 2014, Ukraine was not ready to fight. After 2014, it prepared not only weapons and equipment but most importantly morale. And so in February 2022, when the aggressor attacked, the spirit was already ready, the morale of the nation and people, the morale of the young generation. We need to work on this. To learn from you.
How to demilitarize Transnistria
The Sandu [The President of Moldova - Ed.] party’s representative proposed to demilitarize Transnistria with the help of Ukraine and NATO. How, in your opinion, and why was it talked about? If Russia attacks Moldova in 2023, as stated by the head of the security and intelligence services, what might the Kremlin's attack be? Will it be from Transnistria? What are the possible scenarios?
VM: We cannot say that the Russian Federation will be able to do this now. Again, we return to the fact that they have neither the strength nor the funds at the moment. They got a big slap. And even their partial call-up, which gathered into the army those who were neither morally, physically, nor militarily prepared, cannon fodder. They will not be able to break through to the Republic of Moldova.
It is not the first time that the demilitarization of the Transnistrian region has been said. It is one of the packages of the negotiation process, but it was only touched for a few years because the process itself was dead.
Now the separatist leadership of Transnistria is thinking about what to do, and how to pay the invoice that has been coming from the Kremlin for 30 years; they were given money and developed as they wanted. No one asked anything for it. They worry about how to keep their own pocket money. Because the separatist leaders of Tyraspol [Capital of unrecognized Transnistria - Ed.] have, and this is no secret, businesses, factories, and houses in Ukraine and in Europe.
I think the moment will come when they will have to decide. It will depend not so much on Moldova as on Ukraine's success in this world, and I think that it will all be resolved soon.
Are the Russian troops in Transnistria ready for war?
How well can the Russian troops in Transnistria be equipped? How did you understand that they are not ready to fight either with Moldova, with Ukraine, or with Russia? And will they ever be ready?
YB: All the weapons they have are leftovers from the Fourteenth Army [former military unit of Soviet and Russian field troops, which was transformed into the Operational Group of Russian Forces in Transnistria in 1995. It is still located in this region - Ed.]. This is the first.
Secondly, they strongly do not want to fight, because 90% of the Transnistrian army consists of citizens of the Republic of Moldova, who have several passports: Transnistrian, Moldavian, Romanian, and Ukrainian.
We know of cases when the call-up began, and summonses began to be distributed to citizens of the Russian Federation, who are on the territory of Transnistria. They then started to get Moldovan passports and say that they were citizens of the Republic of Moldova. That is, the conflict that took place in 1992 dragged on.
The generation has changed. The young people who now make up the army of Transnistria live or study in the Republic of Moldova, and go to Europe, Romania, and Bulgaria. They see a different life and do not want to live like in Russia.
Therefore, it is not challenging to open 20 criminal cases regarding the usurpation of power by the leadership of Transnistria, and the conflict will end there.
VM: Here, in the end, one should not underestimate the combat capabilities located in Transnistria. Although they are on outdated equipment with commanders who do not have normal skills.
We must also say about the Russian contingent, which consists of 1,600-1,800 soldiers. They have either Moldavian, Ukrainian, or Russian citizenship because the rotation of the Russian contingent has not taken place in the last three or four years. Not allowed.
Accordingly, they recruit people from the local population. And it's one thing when you have no choice and nowhere to work elsewhere to provide for your family. Then the young guys enrol in one of the structures; that's why in Transnistria, each state structure has its special forces battalion.
It is another thing to go and kill, to die for someone who is sitting inexplicably somewhere, in some Kremlin.
Transnistria has an ammunition warehouse for 20 thousand tons, which no one except the Russian Federation controls. It should also be taken into account; with this, you can arm the population of Transnistria to the teeth.
We do not know what kind of ammunition it is, or what condition it is in. But most importantly, I think that political will is needed in Kyiv and Chisinau to resolve this conflict.
Moldova sees itself in the European Union
What is your forecast for the security situation in Moldova for the next six months?
YB: First of all, I want to say that our people are quite wise. He sees what is happening, and what the “Russian world” looks like.
When we talked about gas blackmail, this blackmail continued throughout the years of independence. There were apples and tomatoes; there were Moldavians who could not get a job in Russia.
I want to say that most citizens of the Republic of Moldova see their future in a large European family, aiming for the European Union alongside Ukraine, with our neighbour, and with our brother.
I am more than sure that the war will soon end with the victory of Ukraine and the victory of the whole conscious world, which sees what atrocities and war crimes are taking place on the territory of Ukraine.
I used to teach humanitarian law. I want to say that every Russian soldier who sets foot on the territory of Ukraine is a potential war criminal.
I don't know if there will be room for everyone in the Hague prison. But they are all potential criminals. Because people who don't want to fight, they don't fight. They go to prison, and they escape.
This is also wrong because it is necessary to deal with the Russian authorities; it is necessary to change from the inside. They must forge their own happiness. But for the future, this year, I see that there will be changes for the better, both in the Republic of Moldova and in Ukraine.
VM: Of course, the changes will be for the better. We will make them ourselves. But, unfortunately, 2023 will still be very difficult for us, because we have a war on our doorstep, near our borders.
I don't see it ending anytime soon. Unfortunately, this will affect the development of the Republic of Moldova.
Our biggest security problem is not even external, only because Ukraine is fighting and restraining the Russian aggressor. And she will win in the future.
We have an internal threat. The fifth column is those pro-Russian political forces, non-governmental organizations, and other organizations.
We have an election year. In the end, there are local elections. Therefore, Russia will do everything possible to crush us economically and bring puppet parties to power, first at the local level, and then at the state level.
Therefore, the entire nation, which realizes what freedom of speech and freedom of action is, and loves the visa-free regime for Europe, should do everything possible so that in the future those parties that are against aggression and support Ukraine and democratic development also win. That's the only way we can work.
We work hard, strongly believe in our future, allies, and partners, and support each other to overcome all difficulties.
