The Third Reich Fall and its allies in 1945 didn't make the world a safer place. The most influential countries, particularly the US, Great Britain and France, clearly felt the threat of post-war revanchism in Germany and the USSR's aggressive policy.
NATO was created on April 4, 1949. This year, the block celebrates its 75th anniversary.
NATO is the largest and most potent military-political Alliance in human history. Despite this, the Alliance made several fatal mistakes that brought Europe and the world closer to World War III.
It is no secret that one of the Alliance's main tasks was to contain the USSR and, after its collapse, the Russian Federation.
However, why NATO ignored Russia's expansion for decades and why a war that could have been prevented has been going on for over ten years in the heart of Europe — in Ukraine?
Who blocked Ukraine's path to NATO?
NATO summit, Bucharest, April 2008. Then, Ukraine had every chance to receive the Membership Action Plan for membership accession to the Alliance.
Most NATO countries, including the US, were optimistic about this decision.
However, this did not happen. The then leaders of Germany and France — Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy — opposed it. They ignored Ukraine's progress and categorically refused to provide MAP [Membership Action Plan - Ed.] not only to our country, but also to Georgia.
According to former Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, he tried to convince the chancellor, but she did not accept any arguments.
We approached Merkel, and she was embarrassed. To my objection that we have fulfilled all the conditions, we have no claims either from the Ministry of Defence or the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and there are no comments from any of the blocs, so why do we see such a resolution that makes it impossible... She asks me: "How many of you currently support people and nations in the rapprochement plan with NATO?". I said: "For today, 31 per cent." She wanted to say it was not enough. I tell her: "Angela, you understand, a year ago, the thesis of integration into NATO was supported by 14 per cent, now 31 per cent." I was convinced that on any other site, if you say that you have multiple dynamics, then they will think that this is an excellent internal policy.
Viktor Yushchenko
Former President of Ukraine (2005-2010)
Interestingly, Merkel dared to explain her fatal decision only in the summer of 2022 — that is, already after the Russian Federation launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The ex-chancellor responded to Volodymyr Zelenskyy's reproaches, saying that she had nothing to apologise for.
Merkel said she supposedly understood what Putin was thinking and did not want to provoke him.
It's a colossal tragedy that didn't work, but I don't blame myself for trying.
Angela Merkel
Former Chancellor of Germany (2005-2021)
The politician made it clear that she followed the path of appeasing the aggressor, which, as you know, always had extremely catastrophic consequences.
It is noteworthy that NATO members saw the first "alerts" of Merkel's and Sarkozy's decision a few months after the summit in Bucharest.
On August 8, 2008, Russia launched an invasion of Georgia, which was denied the MAP.
Why NATO did not defend Ukraine?
Ukraine, the largest European country, was still a young, independent post-Soviet state focused on European values in 2008.
It could have been saved from the tragic fate of Georgia quite simply by allowing it to become a NATO member.
Did the Alliance's members know that dictator Putin had been preparing for years to invade Ukraine and the USSR's revive?
The answer is quite simple and unambiguous. NATO is a military bloc that unites the best intelligence in the world. The Alliance knows everything.
Another thing is, why didn't it act? Why didn't NATO save Ukraine from a large-scale war and itself from the loss of a powerful ally, which the Russian Federation can turn into another Alliance's enemy and its submissive satellite?
Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy gave a clear answer to this question.
If Ukraine were in NATO, I am sure there would still be a battle for independence. But it would be different. I think so. There would not be so many losses. There could be some minor military conflict or provocations on the part of Russia, its disapproval, etc. But I think we would have saved a lot of people.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
President of Ukraine
NATO, which did not want any conflicts with Russia, was probably inclined to agree with such an opinion.
Realising that Putin would never let Ukraine into a bright and safe future without a fight frightened the Alliance members. It seems they didn't want a war or a tiny one.
Interestingly, former British leader Boris Johnson does not share Volodymyr Zelenskyy's opinion.
In his opinion, NATO made a new fatal mistake when it did not want to accept Ukraine.
Putin attacked not because he thought that Ukraine was going to join NATO. He always knew it was unlikely. He attacked Ukraine because he believed — and had ample evidence of this—that we did not take the defence of Ukraine very seriously. If we had been brave and consistent enough to bring Ukraine into NATO — if we meant what we said — then this total disaster could have been avoided.
Boris Johnson
Prime Minister of Great Britain (2019-2022)
It means that a large-scale war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine could be avoided. Still, the Alliance was afraid of taking decisive action to save Europe from a global catastrophe.
Kremlin plans to fight against NATO countries
The invasion of Russia became the reason for the new expansion of NATO, which means its strengthing. It is what Putin "dreamed" about for so long.
Even though many Alliance members scared the world about the possible advance of the Russian army deep into Europe, there was no real threat because the Armed Forces of Ukraine not only firmly held the defence but also managed to liberate many occupied territories in more than two years of full-scale war.
There was no mention of the fall of Ukraine and its defeat. The majority of Kyiv's allies are convinced that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, sooner or later, will be able to defeat the Russian army.
However, the situation changed dramatically at the beginning of 2024: it was then that serious public statements began to be made for the first time that NATO should prepare for an invasion of Russia and a war with it.
Such warnings were issued by many leaders of the Alliance countries, as well as directly by NATO representatives, who are already calling for preparations for "total war" with the Russian Federation.
We must realise that peace is not a given and that we live in peace. That is why we (NATO forces—ed.) are preparing for a conflict with Russia. But the discussion is much broader. It's also about the industrial base and people who must understand their role.
Rob Bauer
NATO Military Committee chief
The recent warning of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was also somewhat disappointing.
According to him, the Alliance should prepare for decades of confrontations with Russia.
These statements and the forecasts of individual Alliance members regarding the beginning of Russia's invasion in the coming years can't be considered empty.
It is clear that they are based on information from intelligence officers, as well as insiders in the Kremlin, who know about Putin's plans and share them with the West.
The question is different: will the Russian dictator dare to start a war against NATO when his army has not achieved any significant success in Ukraine?
It may be just another attempt by the Kremlin chief to divert the Alliance's attention from the events developing in Ukraine.
Dr. Stephan Meister, an expert of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), shared his opinion.
I think that this will happen (Russia's attack on the Alliance — Ed.) only if NATO can't contain Russia or if Moscow gets the impression that NATO member states do not want to defend themselves. Well, maybe when Trump comes… He is already discussing it publicly that he or the US does not want to protect some countries. I think it can happen then.
Ukraine's membership in NATO after the victory
In the autumn of 2022, the Ukrainian authorities submitted an application for accelerated accession to NATO.
On July 11, 2023, the NATO summit in Vilnius adopted a decision regarding Ukraine, which means it will become a member of the Alliance without the MAP.
This fateful step significantly simplifies the way for the Ukrainian people, who have been restraining one of the strongest armies in the world — the Russian one — for over ten years.
But does it mean that Kyiv can count on membership in NATO after the final defeat of the Russian invaders? No, it doesn't.
The Alliance has never hidden that one of the most important conditions for joining is the consent of absolutely all NATO members.
As of today, at least two countries in NATO with a pro-Russian government at the head can block a favourable decision regarding Ukraine, Hungary and Slovakia.
Of course, attempts to overthrow the Kremlin henchmen — Viktor Orban and Robert Fico — have been unsuccessful in each case.
Joining NATO after defeating the Russian Federation is a crucial goal for Ukraine.
The Alliance cannot ignore that Ukraine has an advantage that none of the NATO members can boast of — a mighty army that knows how to act professionally in the conditions of a real full-scale war, not just military exercises.
Brussels must finally realise what a vital ally they may lose if they continue to slow down the process of Ukraine's accession and give Russia time to recover its forces and resources.
Lt Gen Kyrylo Budanov, chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU), has repeatedly warned that Russia will not be able to accept its defeat and will seek revanche if it does not disintegrate like the USSR once did.
Russia will need to recover in the military aspect for about ten years. Ten years is expected to reconsider all this and prepare a new revanche. But we (Ukraine—ed.) will have at least ten years.
Kyrylo Budanov
DIU chief
Suppose we rely on the forecast of the Ukrainian military intelligence chief. In that case, we can assume that in a decade, Ukraine will have time to fulfil all NATO requirements and finally become a full member of the Alliance.
Official Kyiv has already overcome many stages on this path.
There are only three steps left:
Invitation to negotiations on membership (in the case of Ukraine, this can happen only after victory over Russia);
Ratification of the agreement. After reaching a deal at the negotiations, the country must ratify the agreement through national legislation.
Official acceptance into NATO.
Recently, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin started the war because he wanted to close Ukraine's doors to the Alliance, but he achieved the opposite.
Today, Ukraine is closer to NATO than ever.
Jens Stoltenberg
NATO Secretary General
