It is predicted that the April jump in oil revenues in Russia will exceed 30%. At the same time, revenues from the sale of oil and gas are of crucial importance for financing the war against Ukraine.
Why Russia's income from the sale of oil and gas will double
Calculations show that due to the price increase, Russia's projected April revenues from oil and gas will amount to 1.292 trillion rubles, equal to about 14 billion dollars.
In general, the Russian government budgeted federal revenues from the sale of oil and gas at 11.5 trillion rubles for 2024, which is 30% more than in 2023. Thus, this could significantly offset last year's decline due to lower oil prices and sanctions-hit gas exports.
Russia's recovery in energy revenues contributed to the country's budget deficit shrinking to 607 billion rubles, or 0.3% of GDP, over the past three months.
How Russia manages to circumvent sanctions
Sanctions imposed by Western countries meant that in 2023 half of Russia's exports of oil and petroleum products went to China, while India's share rose to 40%. At the same time, Russia manages to bypass the price ceiling of $60 and, accordingly, sell oil at a higher price with the help of the shadow fleet.
The war against Ukraine prompted the West to impose numerous sanctions aimed at limiting Russia's oil and gas revenues, which make up about a third of the country's federal budget.
These measures include restrictions on purchasing Russian oil and financial transactions and a $60 per barrel price cap.
