The so-called presidential "elections" are taking place in Russia, in which the dictator Vladimir Putin will obviously win.
What awaits Russia during the new "term" of Putin
Politico predicted what might happen during his new "term," which will last until at least 2030.
No one can say for sure what the repeated victory of the Russian dictator in this year's "elections" portends. But it is clear that the war in Ukraine has helped make the internal situation in Russia more unstable than in recent decades, and all kinds of potential future scenarios are no longer unthinkable.
The publication has prepared five scenarios that Russia may face by the end of Putin's next term in 2030.
The first scenario
The publication notes that the first scenario is based on the flourishing of democracy in Russia, and its probability ranges between 5-10%.
As the anti-communist and anti-colonial revolutions of 1989 in Eastern Europe showed, totalitarian regimes can rest on quicksand and crumble quickly in the face of democratic movements.
Putin's disastrous decisions in Ukraine have already led to unintended consequences, which in the future will only generate discontent and greater interest in potential alternatives, including direct democracy.
Scenario two
In the second scenario, according to the publication, with a probability of 10-15%, Russia may simply disintegrate.
Politico explains that amid a devastating war in which hundreds of thousands of Moscow soldiers have died in a senseless struggle, Russians are coming out in droves to protest and oust the aging regime clinging to power.
Long-buried frictions and frustrations are spreading throughout the country, and the nation, supposedly united under the firm hand of Moscow, is suddenly splitting along ethno-nationalist lines. Chaos engulfs the country, which is plunged into a mixture of anarchy, territorial fragmentation and violence, which leaves no region, no family untouched, the publication writes.
Scenario three
The probability of the third scenario, according to the publication, already increases to 15-20%, and the scenario itself is based on the idea of the activation of Russian nationalists.
Just a year ago, the idea that rebel militias led by a staunch nationalist could almost go to Moscow, forcing Russian officials to take cover, was a fantasy.
And then, in June of last year, the head of the militia, Yevgeny Prigozhin, did just that. And although Prigozhin's "Wagner" PVK never reached Moscow, it was not due to a lack of opportunities; on the contrary, the way was wide open. If Prigozhin achieved anything, it was that he made Putin look like a tsar without clothes.
For these reasons, such a scenario appears to be one of the most likely for post-Putin Russia. The flames of nationalism ignited by Putin are unlikely to subside in the near future.
The fourth scenario
Technocratic reboot, that's what Politico called the fourth scenario of developments after Putin's re-election. Approximately 20-25% probability is assigned to this scenario.
The publication noted that two years have passed since Moscow's failed invasion of Ukraine, and its consequences for Russia are already obvious.
These costs, whether in the form of a slumping economy or a spiraling death toll, will continue to accumulate. That is why the idea that the inner circle of Kremlin officials will meet with Putin and tell him that they appreciate his service and wish him the best in retirement - in other words, a repeat of the situation with the resignation of Nikita Khrushchev in 1964 - is a scenario that is likely will only increase over time.
According to the publication, there is now a high probability that a new regime will appear in Russia by 2030.
The fifth scenario
The most likely scenario of the development of events in Russia after the re-election of the Russian dictator to the post of president, with a probability of 45-50%, the publication called "Long live President Putin".
With the death of Navalny, the democratic opposition is in ruins. The Russian economy, despite the flurry of Western sanctions, is unlikely to have collapsed, even if it has become sluggish. Although Putin has not conquered Kyiv, the worst of the Ukrainian war may yet be behind us, especially given the US's reluctance to arm Ukraine. And compared to American presidents, at the age of 71, Putin still has relative youth on his side, the publication writes.
