Russian troops are stepping up efforts to capture Avdiivka in the Donetsk region. The fighting is reminiscent of the battle for another eastern city, Bakhmut, where fierce urban battles took place.
Why Avdiivka is so important
Avdiivka, which had about 32,000 inhabitants before the war, has been a frontline town since 2014. According to Ukrainian authorities today, less than 1,000 residents are left, many of whom are hiding in basements and shelters. Officials say no buildings were left unscathed.
Avdiivka is located in the industrial region of Donbas, 15 km north of the Russian-controlled city of Donetsk. Before the war, its Soviet-era coke plant was one of Europe's largest coke producers. Russian-backed officials describe the city as a "fortress" with concrete "bunkers". They say the defenders are in shelters that cannot be stormed without heavy casualties and are using the coke plant as a base and weapons depot.
On January 31, Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized the importance of Avdiivka. Both sides consider the city key to achieving Russia's goal of establishing complete control over the two eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. These are one of four Ukrainian regions that Russia considers annexed but does not have complete control over them. Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, visited this city in December.
Mykola Beleskov of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, an official think tank in Kyiv, believes that the capture of Avdiivka will not change the situation in Moscow's favour but "will make the situation more stable for occupied Donetsk as the main Russian logistics hub." Beleskov believes this battle is caused by the Kremlin's desire to strengthen the position of Western sceptics calling for a reduction in support for Ukraine.
Ukrainian and Western analysts say that Russia's offensive on Avdiivka is leading to substantial human casualties. British military intelligence said last November that the fighting had resulted in "some of the highest Russian casualties of the entire war".
New fresh forces appear every day, regardless of the weather, regardless of anything and losses, — said one of the fighters of the 47th AFU separate mechanised brigade.
Will AFU be able to stop a possible Russian offensive in the direction of Kupiansk?
As the journalists managed to find out, approximately 10 Ukrainian brigades, numbering about 20,000 soldiers, several hundred tanks, combat vehicles and howitzers, are opposing the Russian soldiers on this part of the front.
However, the main problem for the Armed Forces of Ukraine remains the lack of ammunition.
What is essential to understand, having a five-fold advantage in the number of shells, the Russian army has the opportunity to concentrate artillery without fear of Ukrainian counter-battery fire.
This situation allows Russia to apply a well-known approach: the systematic destruction of urban areas, making them defenceless, explained the Ukrainian analytical group Frontelligence Insight.
Journalists also note that the effect of the artillery barrage is already being recorded around Kupiansk.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine fighters are doing their best to compensate for the lack of ammunition at the expense of thousands of FPV drones.
