A large-scale confrontation over natural gas supplies is brewing in the world, which will lead to a significant increase in prices for natural gas for consumers in EU countries and the loss of market access for poorer countries in Asia and South America.
Points of attention
- EU countries face the risk of not meeting gas reserve targets due to reduced supply sources, leading to heightened competition and prices for natural gas.
- The US is poised to increase LNG exports by 15%, positioning itself as a key player in the market, while Russia grapples with export limitations amid sanctions.
- Asian countries possess ample gas reserves to meet demand, whereas other nations explore alternative fuel sources due to escalating LNG prices.
- Global conflict over gas supplies intensifies, with the EU competing for resources with countries in Asia and South America, potentially reshaping market dynamics and pricing strategies.
- By 2030, the influx of 175 million tons of new fuel, primarily from the US and Qatar, could impact pricing policies and restore market access for previously excluded countries.
How gas demand is provoking a large-scale confrontation in the world
As the publication's journalists note, for the first time since 2022, EU countries are at risk of failing to achieve their gas reserve targets for the next autumn-winter period.
Sources of supply have been significantly reduced after Ukraine stopped transiting Russian gas in early 2025.
Saul Kavonik, an energy analyst at MST Marquee in Sydney, notes that to cover projected demand, EU countries will have to buy an additional 10 million tonnes of LNG per year, which is about 10% more than during 2024.
This will force the EU to take away some of the gas that was previously imported to Asian countries.
Depending on how demand grows, competition will lead to higher prices, making it impossible for countries such as India, Bangladesh, and Egypt to buy blue fuel.
Similarly, poorer countries in South America will not be able to buy LNG.
There is also a risk for Egypt, which unexpectedly transformed from an LNG exporter to an importer last year. Egypt experienced power outages in the summer, which led to a surge in gas imports to their highest levels since 2017.
This year, the country may still need additional supplies to survive the summer heat.
Exporters in this situation have significantly more opportunities. However, prospects will depend on the launch of new production facilities.
Growth was modest last year as Egypt halted exports and Russia's new Arctic LNG 2 plant failed to start operations due to US sanctions.
What to expect in the LNG market this year
The United States is now emerging as a key player in the LNG market. Analysts expect the United States to increase LNG exports by 15% this year, driven by increased production at Venture Global LNG Inc.'s Plaquemines and Cheniere Energy Inc.'s Corpus Christi fields.
However, this is still in question at the moment.
Cheniere has already warned that production ramp-up this year will be "relatively slow."
In Russia, which remains Europe's second-largest LNG source, attention will focus on whether the country can maintain its exports under Western sanctions.
Currently, Asian countries have sufficient gas reserves to supply Europe.
Chinese LNG importers are reselling shipments due by March and buying less on the spot market, where prices are high.
Indian gas importers have turned to cheaper alternatives, while Bangladesh has been forced to adjust procurement tenders after prices proved too high. Egypt has turned to gas oil.
Starting in 2026, the delayed projects should finally begin shipping fuel.
By 2030, another 175 million tons of new fuel will begin to be delivered, mainly from the United States and Qatar, which could lower prices and bring back buyers to countries that were squeezed out of the market this year.
