Persistent frosts in Ukraine are likely to complicate operations at the frontline, but may create more favourable conditions for mechanised manoeuvre operations.
Frost in Ukraine will affect combat operations
The Ukrainian military notes that Russian troops are using fewer barrage munitions due to the cold. The occupiers are also using significantly fewer drones due to the threat of engine icing.
A Ukrainian officer of a brigade operating near Bakhmut said on 10 January that temperatures drop to — 18 degrees Celsius at night, making it impossible for personnel to stay at observation posts for more than a few hours. According to him, the intensity of Russian infantry attacks in the Bakhmut direction has decreased, probably due to a significant drop in temperature.
It is noted that low temperatures combined with deep snow may limit manoeuvrability, but frozen ground will improve cross-country movement in January and February.
ISW experts continue to believe that Russian forces are likely to try to support or intensify localised offensives along the entire frontline in eastern Ukraine in an attempt to seize and retain the initiative regardless of the weather and terrain conditions.
The situation at the front
As of 12 January, in the Kupyansk sector, Ukrainian defenders repelled two enemy attacks near Sinkivka in Kharkiv region.
In the Lyman sector, our defenders repelled 6 occupants' attacks near Makiivka, Luhansk region, and east of Terny, Donetsk region.
In the Bakhmut sector, our soldiers repelled an enemy attack near Klishchiyivka, Donetsk region.
In the Avdiivka sector, Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy, who is continuing to try to encircle Avdiivka. Our soldiers are steadfastly holding the defence, inflicting significant losses on the invaders.
Thus, over the past day, the Ukrainian Defence Forces repelled 10 enemy attacks near Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka and another 17 attacks near Pervomaiske and Nevelske in Donetsk region.
In the Maryinka sector, Ukrainian troops continue to hold back the occupants in the areas of Heorhiivka, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka in the Donetsk region, where 13 attacks were repelled.
