Analysts explain whether US has enough Patriot missiles to supply Ukraine

Maryna Lishchuk

Source: Defense Express

The analysts of the Defense Express portal currently see no objective reasons for the cessation of supplies of missiles to the Ukrainian Patriot systems by Western partners.

How objective is threat of stopping supply of Patriot air defence missiles to Ukraine

Analysing an article in the New York Times that Western partners may stop supplying Ukraine with missiles for the Patriot air defence system due to a shortage, the authors of the publication concluded that there are a number of signs that refute such assumptions.

In particular, analysts point out that the authors of the NYT article do not cite a source that claims that Ukraine may stop receiving Patriot anti-aircraft missiles from its Western partners.

This does not make it possible to assess the reliability of the source of the publication's information.

The NYT article does not even specify the type of missiles in question.

At the same time, analysts suggest that this is most likely the MSE anti-aircraft missile for the Patriot PAC-3 system, which is capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, such as the Russian Kinzhal missiles.

Defence Express journalists note that these missiles are produced in very small quantities.

For example, in June last year, the Lockheed Martin American corporation, announced that it was producing 450 of these missiles a year and planned to increase production to 550 units by 2026.

Given the number of Patriot PAC-3 operator countries (about 15 countries), this is not a very significant figure. Especially when it comes to ensuring the combat operation of these air defence systems in Ukraine, when even 450 MSE missiles are up to 225 ballistic missiles according to the standard algorithm, when two anti-missiles are launched at one target to guarantee interception, the publication's analysts emphasise.

Experts also point out that, in addition to the production volumes of these missiles, there is also a certain reserve of them, as the United States alone has at least 60 units of Patriot PAC-3.

In addition, at the end of 2023, it became known that Japan would also start exporting missiles of its own production to the Patriot air defence system. In particular, it produces MSE missiles.

In addition, analysts recall that Germany has recently announced its intention to transfer another Patriot air defence system to Ukraine and plans to transfer five more Patriot batteries by the end of 2024.

Each new battery means a need for missiles for them. And it is not very logical to transfer additional surface-to-air missiles (SAM), to plan their transfer against the background of the end of the missiles themselves, without which they become helpless, analysts emphasise.

At the same time, analysts acknowledge that a real threat of a shortage of Patriot missiles could arise if Russia launches intensive ballistic missile attacks on Ukraine.

What is known about the NYT story

The New York Times, The New York Times, citing unnamed representatives of the White House and the US Department of Defence, stated the alleged inability to provide Ukraine with missiles for the Patriot air defence system in the near future.

It is reported that the cost of these interceptor missiles could range from $2 million to $4 million each.