According to American analysts, Ukrainian defenders were forced to leave Avdiyivka, Donetsk Oblast, due to the fact that the Russian army was able to temporarily establish a limited and local superiority in the air and provide direct air support to the occupying ground troops in the last days of capturing the settlement. It is quite possible that this is the first time that Russian forces have succeeded in such an operation in Ukraine.
Capture of Avdiivka. New details of the battles for the city are known
The ISW team draws attention to the fact that throughout the past year, Russian soldiers have gradually increased the use of planning bombs.
However, their mass use first took place only in Avdiivka in order to provide air support for the infantry.
Russia's ability to launch these massive strikes over a period of several days on the most active part of the front line suggests that Ukrainian forces were unable to deny them access to the airspace around Avdiivka, and Russian forces likely used this temporary localized air superiority to facilitate the capture of significant parts of the city.
According to the latest data, only on February 17, the Russian army released 60 anti-aircraft bombs on the positions of the Armed Forces soldiers in the city.
Another Ukrainian defender claims that the Russian occupiers have released up to 500 planning bombs on Avdiivka in recent days.
Problems with Western aid for the armed forces limit their ability to protect civilians
The American Institute for the Study of War warns that delays in Western security assistance could lead to further significant restrictions on Ukrainian air defenses.
This can untie the hands of the Russian army along the entire front line.
A limited number of air defense systems, a shrinking stockpile of air defense missiles, and constant Russian missile and drone strikes on rear cities will likely force Ukraine to make difficult choices about which sections of the frontline will receive air defense cover.
In addition, it is emphasized that Russian superiority in the air will enable Russian soldiers to advance more aggressively along the front line.
