According to analysts from the energy sector, Ukrainians may face long blackouts in the winter if the difficult situation in the energy system persists.
Points of attention
- Energy sector analysts predict long blackouts in Ukraine during the winter if the challenging situation in the energy system persists.
- Different scenarios for the state of the power system include negative, basic stable, and optimistic options, each with varying implications for power outages and energy generation.
- Experts emphasize the need for preparedness and effective management of energy resources to mitigate potential blackout risks in Ukraine during the winter period.
- Analysts highlight the challenges faced in predicting the energy system's situation for the upcoming winter, citing factors like defense capabilities, infrastructure attacks, and repair equipment availability as significant unknowns.
- It is crucial for Ukraine to address the issues in its energy industry to ensure a stable power supply and prevent crisis situations during the winter.
What forecasts do analysts make regarding blackouts in winter
According to Gennadiy Ryabtsev, the chief researcher of the National Institute of Strategic Studies, during the coming winter the situation with light may not undergo changes and blackouts will continue.
Unfortunately, nothing will change. Schedules of stabilization shutdowns will still be there, because the increase in generation is compensated by the increase in electricity consumption, Ryabtsev explains.
Meanwhile, the director of energy programs of the Razumkov Center, Volodymyr Omelchenko, notes that it is currently difficult to predict the situation in the energy system for the coming winter.
There are many unknowns: the presence of anti-aircraft defense, new opportunities for the enemy to attack energy infrastructure, the availability of repair equipment, etc., the expert emphasized.
He added that in winter the lighting situation will be almost the same as in July, but it is necessary to add another 4 hours of outages.
According to Yury Korolchuk, an analyst from the Institute of Energy Strategies, last year there were no lights for 8-12 hours on some days.
He noted that this happened in regions with a large number of industrial enterprises.
What scenarios do analysts predict for the state of the power system
At the same time, according to him, there are several scenarios for this winter - negative, basic stable and optimistic.
In particular, according to the base scenario, the reconstruction of 3 out of 6 thousand damaged megawatts of electricity generation is expected.
About 8-9 NPP units will work stably, and the winter will be relatively normal, i.e. without severe cold.
In this case, the duration of power outages will be 12 hours per day.
The negative scenario assumes that it will be possible to repair up to 2,000 megawatts, and the NPP units will work 7-6. Winter will be cold. Such a scenario leads to certain crisis situations, namely the collapse of the power system.
