Western analysts point out that the best scenario for the development of the offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kursk region would be to maintain the territories controlled in the region while maintaining positions in the east of Ukraine.
Points of attention
- Maintaining controlled territories in the Kursk region and defense in the east of Ukraine is seen as the best scenario for Ukraine's offensive operation.
- The success of the Armed Forces in Kursk may lead to changes in the West's policy on long-range strike weapons and energize Ukraine's allies.
- Russia's response to the Kursk operation appears cautious, focusing on deterrence and allocating forces strategically.
- Kyiv's offensive in Kursk can potentially weaken Russia's offensive power by shifting the conflict to Russian territory.
- There are risks involved, including the possibility of Ukraine losing significant territories in the east, but the offensive also presents opportunities for Kyiv.
What is known about the best scenario for the development of the Kursk operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
The offensive may also lead to changes in the West's policy regarding the use of long-range strike weapons and bring much-needed energy to the thinking of Ukraine's allies regarding the way forward at this stage of the war, the authors of the material emphasize.
It is noted that the success of the Kursk operation forces the Kremlin to think about the potential opportunities of Ukraine and the fact that the final result of the criminal war launched by Russia against Ukraine remains uncertain.
The operation was well executed and quickly achieved several limited but important objectives, making it an effective week-long raid. If it could pull significant Russian forces away from other fronts, the return would be more than justified. But so far there is little evidence that this has been done... So far, Russia has withdrawn troops from Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv, maintaining offensive operations around the eastern cities of Vugledar, Pokrovsk, Toretsk and Kupyansk. Russia's response to Kursk appears to be an economy of force to deter the invasion, as it continues to prioritize offensive operations in Donetsk. Moscow may be showing some caution, realizing that in past years Ukraine has tended to launch attacks from several directions. Perhaps this is not the only planned offensive operation of Ukraine, the publication emphasizes.
The authors of the material note that currently the Ukrainian military in Kurshchyna is strengthening the defense of its own positions and creating a military administration in the region, planning to keep units of the criminal army of the Russian Federation semi-encircled in the future.
Much depends on how Moscow will react. If Russian troops rush to Ukrainian lines, then Kyiv can force Moscow to enter the battle on its terms, increasing the pressure on the entire front... "Kursk" can weaken Russia's offensive power by transferring the fight to Russian territory. Moscow may also feel compelled to build a significant operational reserve and deploy larger garrisons along its borders. It will also reduce the combat power that Russia may have to conduct hostilities on the territory of Ukraine, analysts suggest.
At the same time, the material emphasizes that Ukraine will be forced to choose between strengthening the defense in the eastern areas of the front or transferring additional forces and equipment to Kurshchyna to continue the offensive.
Analysts also warn about the possibility of the worst scenario, according to which Ukraine could lose significant territories in the east and the controlled part of Kurshchyna in a few months.
The offensive opens up opportunities, but also carries significant risks and costs... In any case, Kyiv hopes that the offensive in the Kursk region will prompt a change in the perception that the war is on a negative trajectory, unlock additional material aid and change the West's restrictions on weapons , - indicate the authors of the material.
What is currently known about the successes of the Armed Forces in Kurshchyna
According to analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the criminal army of the Russian Federation has regained lost positions near Olgovka, east of Korenevo.
Analysts assume that the Ukrainian military has probably retreated from Korenevo.
According to Russian media bloggers, the Armed Forces of Ukraine made a slight advance near Pogrebki and Mala Lokna, northwest of Suja.
In addition, it is claimed that the Ukrainian military carried out assaults near Komarivka, Korenevo, Olhovka, Kremyany, Malaya Lokna, Cherkasy Porec, Russky Porec, in the area of Veliky Soldatsky and Martynivka, as well as near Borky during September 1-2.
It is also noted that the Ukrainian military continues to attack the Antonine crossings over the Seim River in the Glushkovsky District.
The ISW draws attention to the fact that the Army Corps of the Leningrad Military District, the 11th Airborne (Airborne) Brigade, the 56th Airborne Regiment (7th Airborne Division) and the Chechen special forces "Akhmat", units of the Russian " of the Wild Division of Donbas".
