Moscow no longer has access to its naval base in the Syrian city of Tartus after the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime. The Kremlin has been unable to provide the necessary support to its ally due to its focus on the war against Ukraine.
Points of attention
- The loss of access to the military base in Tartus has led to changes in Russia's strategy in Syria due to the attention the country is paying to the war in Ukraine.
- Potential alternative bases in North Africa could become new geopolitical points of influence.
- Russia has suffered losses due to political instability in Syria and the activity of the Ukrainian conflict.
- Restrictions on entry for citizens from Iran and Israel complicate relations with Damascus and have consequences for international trade.
- The decision of official Damascus increases tensions in the region and causes turbulence in global trade transactions.
Russia has lost access to military bases in the Mediterranean Sea
As noted in the British intelligence summary, Russia's continued presence and capabilities in the Eastern Mediterranean remain in question.
After losing control of Tartus, the Russian naval group in the region is now deprived of a key logistical base for maintenance and supply, and has no equivalent alternative in the region.
The future of Russian bases in Syria remains uncertain due to political instability in the country. At the same time, Russia almost certainly seeks to maintain its military presence in the Mediterranean, the report says.
Latest Defence intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine — 21 January 2025.
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British intelligence notes that the Kremlin is likely to focus on logistical support for its military and private military companies (PMCs) in Africa, as well as on attempts to minimize reputational losses associated with the fall of the Assad regime.
It remains unclear at this time whether Russia plans to redeploy its forces or equipment to potential alternative bases in North Africa.
The British Ministry of Defense emphasizes that the Kremlin's main focus remains on the war in Ukraine, which has likely limited its ability to support the Assad regime.
The Russian leadership almost certainly considers the Ukrainian conflict to be its top priority, which has reduced Moscow's ability to maintain Assad's rule in Syria, the British department concluded.
Syria is gradually severing ties with Russia
What is important to understand is that official Damascus made a new unexpected decision after restrictions were introduced on the entry of citizens from Iran and Israel, writes Turkiye Today .
Journalists point out that this move increases tensions in the region, especially between Syria and these countries. The impact of the decision on international trade should also not be ignored.
It is of great importance for neighboring countries and world trade, especially for Turkey, which has close trade relations with Syria, the publication says.
According to insiders, a decree by the Syrian Ministry of Finance, which was issued on December 17, prohibits the import into Syria of goods originating from the aforementioned countries.
In addition, it is emphasized that the ban will apply to all land and sea border ports of the country.
