The better NATO is prepared for an attack by the Russian Federation, the less likely it is that the power of the North Atlantic Alliance will be tested. That is why analysts give 3-5 years for the time of a hypothetical Russian attack on NATO. But there are several factors, the totality of which can guarantee a new war in Europe.
The Estonian commander believes Russia may attack NATO countries
The Russians need to withdraw 300,000 of their soldiers from Ukraine to attack NATO countries. Then, Russia requires time to rebuild its troops.
ERR reports accordingly to the statement of Estonian Defense Forces commander Martin Herem.
According to him, for Russia to attack NATO countries, four factors need to coincide.
First, Russia will have to withdraw most of its troops from Ukraine — 300,000 of the 400,000 troops placed there. Second, there will be a recovery period, said Herem.
In his opinion, Russia will need about a year to rebuild its troops.
Thirdly, even if it recovers in a year, even if Ukraine comes out of the war, something significant must happen in the world — a super pandemic, a complete collapse of the economy, a war in Taiwan or the Balkans. In this case, we have to be very vigilant, — added the Commander.
The fourth factor, as Herem noted, is the level of NATO training.
The better prepared we are, the less likely it is that our strength will be tested. But if we do not prepare and do not talk about it, then this can be expected. That's where those three- or five-year warnings come from. This year, the Russian Federation will not leave Ukraine, add another year or two, and you will leave for a certain period, says Herem.
What does the DIU know about the threat of a Russian attack on NATO
Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) spokesman Andriy Yusov emphasised that Russia poses a threat to the security of European countries and NATO.
DIU has information, and of course, those signals that are made public, including by international media experts. They state the fact that the Russian Federation is really a threat to the security of Europe and NATO, — said the DIU representative.
According to the HUR representative, the world is responding to these signals, and Ukrainian partners within the international coalition are being strengthened accordingly.
