The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) of Ukraine, conducted by the International Monetary Fund during the last, third review of the EFF extended financing program, may indicate a partial write-off of the state debt.
The IMF can partially write off Ukraine's debt already this year
It is noted that there is no direct mention of partial debt write-off in the documents. However, the IMF declares the need to reduce national debt to 82% of GDP by 2028 and 65% of GDP by 2033.
The IMF sees our public debt sustainable at a debt-to-GDP ratio of 82% in 2028. At the same time, the IMF predicts that without restructuring, Ukraine's national debt will grow to 91.2% of GDP in 2028, so in order to achieve sustainability, Ukraine should reduce this debt by 9.2% of GDP, or about $21 billion, said Oleksandr Parashchyi, the head the analytical department of the Concorde Capital investment company.
Why does the IMF allow partial debt write-offs?
Given the situation, it can be concluded that the IMF allows partial debt write-offs.
From this, we can conclude that the IMF sees the potential for writing off the state debt this year by approximately $15 billion. This is a very large amount, if you consider that the main object of such writing off should be Eurobonds, the total amount of which is issued is $21.2 billion, he said.
However, the analyst of the ICU group, Mykhailo Demkiv, noted that the IMF's conclusion is written so vaguely that it is impossible to determine the parameters of restructuring from it. Still, the market is waiting for the debt to be written off.
The IMF sees the potential to write off Ukraine's public debt this year by approximately $15 billion.
