According to American analysts, the Russian military group, which is currently in the Transnistria, does not plan to invade Ukraine.
Russian soldiers in Transnistria do not pose a military threat to Ukraine
Information recently appeared that the occupying authorities of Transnistria may call or organize a referendum on joining Russia on February 28.
Despite this, Ukrainian officials assure that the probability of a Russian ground attack on Ukraine from the territory of the Transnistria, a pro-Russian separatist region of Moldova, is low.
According to Natalya Humenyuk, spokeswoman for the Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine, the Kremlin is simply trying to "shake up" the information space and create socio-political tension.
In addition, Andriy Yusov, representative of the DIU, recently reported that the data that the "authorities" of Transnistria will call for Russian annexation are "unconfirmed".
Russia is not yet preparing to invade Ukraine with the Transnistria
According to representatives of the American Institute for the Study of War, they currently do not see any signs that a limited Russian grouping of troops in Transnistria may attempt to conduct a ground operation that could threaten Ukraine.
In addition, the ISW team concluded that this group is not capable of launching a full-fledged ground operation against Ukraine.
Despite this, American analysts issued a cautionary forecast on February 22 and warned that Transnistrian officials may call for a referendum on joining Russia to support Russian hybrid operations aimed at political and social destabilization of Moldova. However, this warning referred to the threat to Moldova's stability, not the situation in Ukraine.
