Tehran is considering how to respond to a major strike by the Israeli military that is more diplomatic than having significant economic or military consequences — damaging the Iranian diplomatic mission.
Iran can provoke a war with the US and Israel
FT columnists believe that Israel has raised the stakes in the war that has already engulfed more than one country in the East since Hamas attacked the Jewish state on October 7. The Middle East expects a strong response from Iran, but there is a high probability that Tehran will only dare to take some symbolic steps.
In 2020, Iran promised severe revenge for the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the symbol of the Islamic Republic. Indeed, Tehran hit the American base in Iraq with ballistic missiles. However, according to the facts, Iran informed the US of its intentions in advance. In this way, Tehran played a double game — it satisfied the aggressive appetite for revenge in its own electorate and at the same time prevented a direct military confrontation with the United States.
A similar story in outcome was during threats to kill another military leader of the Islamist state. Iran, according to the FT, is currently facing a dilemma — how to prevent a further attack on Iranian interests without getting involved in a war that could have fatal consequences.
Why is Iran at a crossroads and what does this mean for the unity of the "anti-West"?
After the attack on the Iranian diplomatic mission, among the states that consider Iran the leader of the anti-Western coalition, a decisive response is expected. "Retaliatory actions are necessary to maintain the balance, to deter," says Lebanese analyst Kassem Kassir.
However, even Iranian analysts believe that a direct military conflict should not be expected, although there are threats of countermeasures that will have serious consequences.
The danger for Iran is that a retaliation that is perceived as weak could risk maintaining Iran's reputation, and affect the morale of all its supporters, including Hamas. However, a more aggressive response could draw the country into a direct confrontation with Israel and possibly the United States, which the regime is believed to be trying to avoid, the FT writes.
Even more, the foreign rhetoric and hostility towards the USA has always been compensated by the pragmatism of Iran's leaders. That is why Iran maintains a balance and exists as a more or less stable state, even with such harsh anti-Western rhetoric.
In Tehran, according to the publication, they fear that the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, may be seeking to push Iran into a direct confrontation. And this will destroy the very shaky balance in the Middle East, concludes the publication.
Analyzing the situation, one can compare the actions of Iran with the actions of the diplomacy of the USA and some European countries, which, while maintaining their support for Ukraine, at the same time try to act so as not to be on the verge of a direct conflict with Russia, trying to maintain some imaginary balance of power.
