According to analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia is creating information conditions in the unrecognised separatist region of Transnistria for a further false flag operation to destabilise the situation in Moldova.
What is known about the Kremlin's preparations for another attempt to destabilise the situation in Moldova
In particular, according to ISW analysts, on 12 January, the ‘ministry of state security’ of Transnistria ghost-country issued a press release claiming that “some sabotage activities are to be done by special services of Moldova”.
The ‘ministry‘ also shared some details on the predicted Moldavian sabotage saying that “special combat groups of 60 people each are to destroy critical and military facilities in Transnistria” as well as “capture and eliminate high-ranking officials”.
The MGB is a Russian organisation, a "department of the Federal Security Service of Russia (FSB)", which is likely to take orders directly from Moscow.
According to military analysts, this is likely part of the Kremlin's efforts to create a media environment aimed at destabilising Moldova and justifying any future Russian campaigns in the region by portraying Russia as the defender of the Russian language, which is allegedly under threat.
What is known about the latest incidents on the border with unrecognised Transnistria
On 10 January, the unrecognised 'ministry of state security' of Transnistria reported a shooting on the border of the unrecognised republic with Ukraine on 7 January.
After the shooting, two Transnistrians allegedly found themselves on the territory of Ukraine.
However, the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine reported that it had not recorded any such incidents.
In addition, in mid-December, Moldova launched military exercises at the Bulboaca Training Centre, which is located near Transnistria.
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