The Ministry of Defense of Lithuania believes that there is currently no threat of a Russian attack on NATO, because Moscow does not have the resources to open a second front. The priority of the aggressor country is not to lose the war against Ukraine.
Will Russia attack NATO?
Until the fighting in Ukraine is over, it is difficult to assume that Russia will redistribute its priorities and begin to mobilize forces in other directions, — the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense commented on the Bild publication about Germany's preparations for a possible war with the Russian Federation.
At the same time, according to the agency, Russia plans a long-term increase in forces in the western region. For this purpose, plans have been developed to expand infrastructure and military units, infrastructure changes are being carried out, and areas of command are being divided.
Russia maintains significant capabilities and is constantly replenishing them near the front line in Ukraine. Russia's priority at the moment is not to lose the war with Ukraine, it is directing certain resources to that end, the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense noted.
What has preceded this
The German publication Bild earlier wrote that the Bundeswehr is preparing for a hybrid Russian attack on NATO's eastern flank. A military conflict seems to be possible already in February of this year.
The Bundeswehr "Alliance Defense 2025" secret scenario begins in February 2024. Russia is launching another wave of mobilization and conscripting another 200,000 servicemen into the army.
The Kremlin then launched a spring offensive — relying on weak Western support in the direction of Kyiv — that by June 2024 is making great strides and is gradually pushing the Ukrainian army back.
The Ministry of Defense of Germany did not comment on this information.
"Basically, I can tell you that looking at different scenarios — even if they're extremely unlikely — is part of everyday military operations, especially in the area of training," said a department official.
A NATO official commented on the material of the Bild publication and stated that the Alliance received a training scenario, which is always an imaginary situation to test military capabilities in a particular area
"Once upon a time, scenarios were completely fictional with non-existent countries and geographic regions," he said.
However, NATO now uses existing countries and geographic regions to develop training scenarios. Sarts emphasized that the previously published information is not a secret intelligence analysis that predicts the future development of the situation.
