According to the Deputy Chairman of the National Bank, Serhii Nikolaychuk, Ukraine's GDP will likely exceed 5% in 2023. This means that it exceeded the expected level of 4.9%.
Ukraine's GDP is growing despite the war
Representatives of the regulator draw attention to the fact that last year's forecasts were improved quarterly for both GDP and inflation.
According to Serhiy Nikolaychuk, this is a rather unusual situation. Usually, when the economic prospects improve and economic activity increases, this leads to more significant pressure on prices and an increase in inflation.
At the same time, we realised very significant shocks on the supply side, positive shocks, he emphasised.
The deputy chairman of the National Bank draws attention to what is being said about the harvest of grain, vegetables, and fruits, which positively affected both GDP indicators and inflation.
What is essential to understand is that at the beginning of 2023, the Ukrainian authorities expected a grain harvest of 45.6 million tons but received almost 60.
A significant role was played by the adaptability of Ukrainian agribusiness, the adjustment of logistics, and very favorable weather conditions, adds Nikolaychuk.
What factors significantly influenced the growth of Ukraine's GDP
According to the NBU representative, international support played a critical role.
It is about the fact that Ukraine expected $38.6 billion in aid but received almost $43 billion.
Moreover, it is emphasised that borrowing on the domestic market was much more extensive.
Actually, these factors, together with the high adaptability of Ukrainian business, led to a much better result. And taking into account the fact that the third quarter was a little better than we predicted in October, and we see better results in the fourth quarter, Serhiy Nikolaychuk emphasised.
