According to American intelligence, Russia almost certainly does not want a direct military conflict with US and NATO forces. Instead, it will continue asymmetric activity in order not to cross the threshold of a military conflict on a global scale.
Assessment of Russia's war against Ukraine
The annual threat assessment for 2024, released by the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence, focuses primarily on threats from China and Russia but also highlights the risks of a broader conflict related to Israel's campaign against Hamas in Gaza.
Intelligence concludes that Russian President Vladimir Putin probably believes that Russia has blunted Ukraine's efforts to win back significant territories.
President Vladimir Putin probably believes that Russia thwarted Ukraine's attempts to win back significant territories, that his calculation for victory in this war is also working in the West, in particular, American aid to Ukraine is limited, especially against the background of the war between Israel and Hamas, the document states.
However, Putin undermined Russia's geopolitical, economic and military renaissance and damaged its international reputation with a large-scale invasion of Ukraine.
At the same time, as noted in the document, Russia is implementing policies aimed at mitigating these losses and using international relations to minimise the damage associated with sanctions and restore confidence in itself as a great power.
The United States believes that Russia will continue to use "all available resources of state" power to advance its interests and attempts to undermine the influence of the United States and its allies, although being cut off from Western markets and technologies and the flight of "human capital" will be a challenge for it.
This can range from the use of energy to coerce cooperation and weaken the unity of the West regarding Ukraine to intimidation in the military and security sphere, malicious influence, cyber operations, espionage and various tricks, the US intelligence community notes.
Threats to the United States
Intelligence reports indicate that Russia, Iran and China may act to influence the outcome of the 2024 US election.
The report says Beijing has a head start on TikTok, owned by the Chinese company ByteDance.
China is showing a higher degree of sophistication in its influence activities, including experiments with generative artificial intelligence, the report said.
The report also notes how Russia's strengthening ties with China, Iran and North Korea have created new challenges for the West.
Recent reports suggest that it is looking to start an arms race in space by deploying nuclear weapons that would destroy satellites by releasing a massive energy wave upon detonation.
Russia continues to train its military space elements and deploy new anti-satellite weapons to disrupt and degrade US and allied space capabilities, the report said.
