As politicians and generals gather in Germany for the Munich Security Conference, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin faces an acute human resources crisis in his war against Ukraine.
Points of attention
- Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is conducting a 'secret mobilization' due to a human resources crisis in the war against Ukraine.
- The slow pace of military advancement of Russian troops indicates problems with limited human resources and strategic losses.
Putin is conducting a "secret mobilization": what is known
The Russian army cannot find enough volunteers — even by recruiting them from prisons and various third world countries — to replace its losses on the battlefield in Ukraine. It is estimated that Russian losses on the front are estimated at 35,000 per month.
Although Russian troops continue to slowly advance, their pace is extremely slow: in some sectors they are only 15–75 m per day.
This is slower than many of the grueling offensive operations of World War I, such as the Battles of the Somme or Passchendaele. However, the human losses for the aggressor country are the same or even greater.
Russia has effectively moved from equipment losses to much greater losses in personnel. The assault formations and recruitment channels that supply the front were designed with their cost in mind. The system is built to withstand grueling warfare, even with significant human losses, said Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment.
According to the publication's sources in intelligence circles, Putin appears to be conducting a "secret mobilization." The usual six-monthly draft cycles, which historically amounted to about 130,000 people per draft, have been replaced by a system of continuous conscription.
This is intended to hide the real number of men called up. According to the data, conscripted reservists, who are usually assigned to guard infrastructure and perform tasks in the rear, are actually being redirected to front-line formations.
It is emphasized that this new secret mobilization is actually even larger than the one that took place in 2022, which is why Putin is so keen to keep it secret.
At the same time, the Kremlin leader shows no desire for negotiations. It is possible that Putin's strategy is to endure in order to survive Western political cohesion, such as it is.
Russia cannot continue this war indefinitely, and Ukraine can win. However, as the publication points out, success depends on Europe's steadfast and united resolve.
