The British MOD concluded that Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine reduced Moscow's influence on the countries of the former USSR, even though Putin wanted to achieve the opposite.
Russia is losing its influence on the former USSR countries
British intelligence officers admitted the Russian Federation's large-scale invasion of Ukraine caused a significant shift in the Kremlin's relations with the former Soviet Union countries.
Russia almost certainly continues to see maintaining its influence in these countries as a foreign policy priority, crucial to domestic security and economic prosperity. Since February 2022, while there are variations between countries, Russia’s overall influence in its near neighbours has declined, British intelligence officers emphasise.
In addition, the inability of the Russian Federation to achieve significant successes in the war called into question the role of Russia as a guarantor of security in the region.
According to the Ministry of Defense of Great Britain, Russia's violation of Ukraine's sovereignty increased the feeling of threat from the Russian Federation.
It is also important to understand that more and more countries are showing a tendency to reduce their dependence on official Moscow.
Even though the aggressor country maintains a significant presence in the region, overt and covert, the ability of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's team to achieve its goals has almost certainly declined significantly in the past two years.
The Kremlin fears the Western troops sent to Ukraine
According to Kremlin's speaker Dmytry Peskov, the appearance of NATO troops on the territory of Ukraine will allegedly provoke a direct conflict between Russia and the Alliance.
In that case, we would need to talk not about the probability but the inevitability (of a direct conflict — Ed.).This is how we assess it, — said Kremlin's speaker.
According to Peskov, the Kremlin knows French leader Emmanuel Macron's position "regarding the need to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia."
