In recent months, Ukraine's allies have made many decisions that make it impossible for Russia to win the war. French professor, political scientist and journalist Olivier Védrine warns that this may push Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to make radical decisions.
Points of attention
- Tactical nuclear weapons can become a severe threat to Ukraine.
- Eastern Ukraine, especially Kharkiv, has become a new target for the Russians.
- The decision of Ukraine's partners to allow strikes on targets on the territory of Russia forces us to take into account not only military but also political consequences.
- Political tensions between Russia and the West are growing, which may go beyond diplomatic settlement.
- Putin is trying to play on this tension, offering negotiations that threaten the balance of the military and political situation.
Russia was frightened by the West's determination to protect Ukraine
Tactical nuclear weapons are weapons that can potentially be used on the battlefield, for example, to destroy a tank column or to breach a defence.
It can also be used as a last warning before the use of strategic nuclear weapons. A tactical nuclear warhead has an explosive yield of 1 to 100 kilotons. For comparison, the bomb that the US dropped on Hiroshima had a power of 12 to 15 kilotons.
At the end of 2022, the American government had prepared for the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons. Towards the end of the summer of 2022 and the fall of the same year, the US National Security Council held several meetings to determine how to respond, how to anticipate or deter if signs came to indicate that Russia was was preparing to use nuclear weapons. This perspective was based on information collected by the US.
At the end of May, the illegitimate president of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, threatened "serious consequences" in the event of the use of Western weapons for strikes on Russian territory.
In 2023, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called the arrival of F-16 fighter jets in Ukraine "a threat to the West in the nuclear sphere."
For the first time, Germany and the US have given the green light to Ukraine to launch strikes on targets on the territory of Russia under certain conditions. The decision came after the Pentagon was able to demonstrate that Russia was using North Korean ballistic missiles in its war.
Joe Biden, who has so far refused to do so, allowed Kyiv to strike targets on Russian territory under certain conditions. Also, France announced that it would not veto Ukrainian attacks on the Russian Federation.
Thus, these decisions should allow Ukraine to defend Kharkiv in the east of Ukraine, which is an almost daily target of bombing for the aggressor country.
At the diplomatic level, Russia was ultimately not invited to the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings on June 6 because of its "aggressive war" against Ukraine.
Russia may use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine
Climbing, there is! Putin says he is ready to negotiate; certainly not to end the conflict, but to buy time. A negotiation like the Korean scenario, neither side wins, peace is impossible, even with a negotiated ceasefire.
We would move towards a frozen conflict ending in a partition agreement, like the two Koreas. Russia is not ready for a high-intensity conventional conflict with NATO. And we are not prepared either!
I consulted several of my sources. The arrival of the F-16s and the strikes on Russian territory could trigger a tactical nuclear strike. Some of my contacts tell me that the Russian general staff is seriously considering it. These strikes would concern military objectives where the F-16s and the weapons of the allies for Ukraine would be located. The information is all the more critical as these strikes could concern military bases in Ukraine and outside Ukraine.
Olivier Védrine
French professor, political scientist and journalist
This information should be considered in the context of Putin's latest statement: "In Europe, especially in small countries, they need to think about what they are playing with. They must remember that they are often states with a small territory and dense population."
Later, the Russian dictator also added:
"This factor is a serious thing that they [Ukrainian allies — Ed.] must have in mind before talking about striking deep into Russian territory", he continued. This permanent escalation can have serious consequences."
