Reuters journalists and leading Western analysts note that depriving Russia of oil revenues could force Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin to end the war against Ukraine.
How the US and its allies can force Putin to end the war against Ukraine
Journalists note that Putin was able to attack Ukraine thanks to Russia's significant revenues from the sale of oil.
Despite the US and its allies' embargo on Russian oil and the EU's denial of gas from the Russian Federation, Russia had a positive trade balance and $51 billion in profits last year.
Although this is less than the previous year's $238 billion, Moscow is still in the black.
The article's authors emphasise that the situation can be changed by reducing Russia's income from the sale of oil and oil products to such an extent that it will cause a deficit.
According to Jacob Nell, a senior researcher at the Kyiv School of Economics, Russia, like the USSR at one time, faced crises when the current account of the balance of payments became negative.
Nell noted that export earnings would have to fall by about $80 billion in that case, forcing Putin to resort to extreme measures to stabilise the economy.
About $30 billion of that amount could come from increased gas embargoes and restrictions on the export of fertilizers and metals such as nickel.
But most of it should come from lowering the price Moscow gets for its oil to $50 a barrel.
However, the article notes that this is not easy because currently, despite Western sanctions, Russian oil of the Urals brand is sold at about $71 per barrel, which is only $14 lower than Brent.
At the same time, Russia can use its fleet to bypass the strengthened US sanctions.
Ukraine's allies may be lucky if the world oil price drops sharply. Without that, they will need much tougher measures to drive the price Russia gets for its oil down to $60, let alone $50. The key to achieving this is to convince India, the largest importer of Russian offshore oil, to stop paying more than the upper price limit, the publication explained.
The problem is that Russia may refuse to sell oil at such low prices and instead limit production. This will lead to an increase in world oil prices, which will hurt India and Ukraine's allies. They are not yet ready to take the necessary risks to reduce Russia's revenues. Until they do, Putin has no financial reason to end the war.
What is known about the critical buyers of Russian oil
According to Bloomberg, China is approaching a record purchase of Russian oil in March.
This is happening against the background of a sharp increase in the import of "Sokol" oil.
It is noted that this month China plans to receive about 1.7 million barrels of Russian oil daily.
The volume of Sokil oil receipts will triple compared to February — to a record 379,000 barrels per day.
In addition to Sokol, China will actively purchase ESPO, Siberian oil supplied through the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline, this month.
According to estimates, this indicator should be 882 thousand barrels daily, a record since January last year.
Now, in Beijing, they took advantage of the price reduction for "Sokol" because India fears American sanctions.
Traders are unsure whether all "Sokol" cargoes will reach the buyers or be unloaded at the customs warehouse.
This is due to Chinese banks' hesitation regarding trade with Russia, given the new "tanker" sanctions.
In February, it became known that India had resumed importing Sokol.
Last month, it was also reported that Moscow received unprecedented income from oil exports.
The United States played a role in buying petroleum products made from raw Russian materials in India.
