According to military and political analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko, the situation in the Avdiivka region of Donetsk region indicates the inability of the criminal army of the Russian Federation to carry out the crazy order of Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin and capture the city by the end of this year.
What is known about the lack of prospects for the Russian army in the Avdiivka region
Kovalenko noted that high-intensity fighting continues in the Avdiivka region, but currently, the criminal army of the Russian Federation uses mainly infantry units with minimal use of armoured vehicles.
The expert emphasized that such tactics did not allow the Russian invaders to succeed, and the dominant heights in the Avdiivka area remained under the control of the Ukrainian military.
Kovalenko added that in some areas, the enemy is even retreating.
All this indicates that before Putin communicates with the mass media and the masses, as well as during the New Year and his address to consumers of informational fast food, it will not be possible to surround Avdiivka with the forces involved, the analyst concludes.
The military observer notes that to "accelerate the process", the command of the Russian army will try to launch new army units in this direction. But this raises the question - where will the Russians get their forces when these reserves run out by January.
What is known about the likely scenarios for the development of hostilities in winter
According to military analyst Yevhen Dykyy, we should not expect a decrease in the intensity of hostilities with the onset of winter.
There will be no pause. There will be absolutely terrible destruction of each other on the front line. But there will not be any significant movement — the map will not move, the analyst notes.
According to him, there will be fierce battles, but precisely positional ones.
The expert emphasized that the Russians did not announce an offensive towards Avdiivka because they understood they could not guarantee the city's capture.
According to him, Avdiivka is still a “solid nut". He notes that the city survived in 2014 and still holds on today.
And here it is not only about people, but also about the area. Avdiivka’s "promka"[industrial area — Ed.] is a naturally fortified area. Together with the Avdiivka Coke Plant, it is more similar to Azovstal, where our soldiers were completely besieged for two and a half months, but Avdiivka, thank God, was not under siege. I really hope that they will break their teeth in Avdiivka, but at the moment the situation there is difficult, Dykyy says.
He emphasized that, for the first time since 2014, fighting is not taking place in the area of the Avdiivka industrial zone but directly on its territory.
They control 10% of the industrial zone, and we control 90%. Now the battles are going on for separate reinforced concrete buildings, the analyst explains.
According to him, one of the reasons for this is the lack of personnel in the Defense Forces.
If we still have to retreat from Avdiivka, then it is not a salute to our boys and girls who are there, but a salute to those who are not there now, Dykyy notes.
According to the analyst, the Ukrainian authorities should not lose the opportunity next year to effectively conduct conscription and increase the country's defense capabilities, as happened this year.
Dykyy noted that the Kremlin would turn Ukraine into a solid Bucha in the event of victory.
They are setting a target of 2025. They evaluated us, they understood that in 2024, the second army of the world will not be able to break through our defenses, go to Kyiv and Kharkiv. Their task for 2024 is to hold the occupied territories and destroy us as much as possible when trying to liberate them. And then they believe that the second coming will happen —Trump will enter the White House, cut off the munition supply, and then in 2025 they will turn around, the analyst explains.
He emphasized that we have the whole year of 2024 to produce the required amount of munition ourselves.
