In ISW, several possible variants of actions of the Russian authorities in response to the appeals for help by the "deputies" of the unrecognised Transnistria are assumed.
How the Kremlin can respond to the calls of "deputies" of unrecognized Transnistria
According to analysts, unrecognised Transnistria held a congress of so-called "deputies" on February 28. It adopted a series of decisions likely intended to provide the Kremlin with justification for a wide range of possible escalating actions against Moldova — actions that the Kremlin could resort to immediately and in the long term.
The most likely course of action (MLCOA) is that the Kremlin will use the congress as a springboard to intensify hybrid operations aimed at destabilizing and further polarising Moldova in the run-up to negotiations on Moldova's accession to the European Union and the upcoming presidential elections in Moldova in June and November 2024 year, respectively.
The most dangerous scenario (MDCOA) is that the Kremlin may decide to formally annex Transnistria in the future to justify military intervention against Moldova in the long term.
The institute suggests the following options for actions by the Russian authorities:
The Kremlin may decide not to act immediately after the February 28 congress. However, Putin may decide to meet these demands later.
The Kremlin may increase diplomatic pressure on Moldova to repeal the recently adopted Customs Code, which entered into force on January 1, 2024. The changes made by Moldova to the Customs Code are important for bringing Moldova into compliance with EU norms on the country's path to membership in the European Union.
The Kremlin may also try to provide additional military aid to Transnistrian forces in the future. However, it is currently unclear how it hopes to deliver military equipment or personnel to Transnistria.
What is happening in Transnistria
On February 28, the so-called "deputies" of all levels in unrecognised Transnistria held a congress.
They adopted an appeal to Russia with a request for "protection from the pressure of Moldova", they also appealed to a number of international organisations.
The Bureau of Reintegration of Moldova called the statements in the appeal of the congress of "deputies" of the unrecognized Transnistria to Russia propaganda.
The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) noted that the appeal to Russia for protection from Moldova was not the result that the Kremlin expected.
Before the congress, information spread that "deputies" could call on Moscow to join the unrecognised region to Russia.
