The Russian Federation is using the Il-76 disaster to sow internal discontent in Ukraine and undermine the West's desire to continue providing military support to Ukraine.
Analysts analysed Russia's statements regarding the IL-76 plane crash
Military analysts cite the words of the chairman of the Defense Committee of the Russian State Duma, Andrei Kartapolov, who stated that Ukraine deliberately shot down the Il-76, knowing that Ukrainian prisoners of war were on board, and called for an indefinite suspension of all exchanges of prisoners of war.
At the same time, the deputy head of the Russian Security Council, Dmytry Medvedev, blamed the Ukrainian "internal political struggle" for involvement in the disaster.
In addition, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who is currently in New York at a meeting of the UN Security Council, called for an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council dedicated to this plane crash and accused Ukraine of terrorism.
ISW notes that such Russian accusations are in part intended to sow discontent in Ukraine and increase distrust of the Ukrainian government, consistent with other Russian information efforts aimed at weakening Ukraine domestically.
Military analysts note that the exchange of prisoners of war is a sensitive issue for both Russia and Ukraine, and rhetorical references to prisoners of war are predictably emotional.
In addition, Russian officials have made unsubstantiated claims that Ukraine shot down the Il-76 with American or German missile systems, likely in an attempt to dissuade Ukraine's Western partners from providing Ukraine with critical air defence systems needed for defence.
The IL-76 plane crash: what is known
On the afternoon of January 24, an Il-76 military plane crashed in the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation stated that the aircraft was allegedly flying from the Chkalovsky military airfield (Moscow region) to Belgorod to transport Ukrainian service members for exchange.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, "the launch of two Ukrainian missiles" was recorded. As a result of the disaster, all those on board were killed: 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war, 3 Russian servicemen who accompanied them, and six crew members.
Russian propagandist Margarita Simonyan made public the lists of Ukrainian prisoners of war who were allegedly on board the IL-76 that crashed on January 24.
The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine confirmed that the exchange planned for January 24 did not occur, but the department has no data on whether Ukrainian prisoners were on board. They noted that Ukraine was not informed about the need to ensure the safety of the flight, which may indicate that Russia deliberately created a threat to the lives and safety of prisoners of war.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, without mentioning Il-76, said that they are taking all measures to protect Ukraine and Ukrainians. At the same time, the intensity of shelling from the Russian Federation has increased due to the increase in the number of military transport aircraft in Belgorod.
Russia wants to hold an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council due to the crash of a Russian Il-76 military transport plane in the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation, in which, according to the Russian side, Ukrainian prisoners of war were being transported for exchange.
Journalists of the "Schemes" project managed to find out the list of crew members of the Russian plane, their names and positions, as confirmed by the relatives of the dead.
So far, three of the six crew members who may have been on board the plane have been confirmed dead.
They are 36-year-old ship commander Stanislav Bezzubkin, ship navigator Alexei Vysokin, and 38-year-old flight engineer Andrei Piluev.
