Secret Russian files contain scenarios of preparation for the invasion of China and testify to a low threshold for the use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia in the event of a conflict with a major world power.
What is known about the relations between Russia and China
According to experts, in these documents, which consist of 29 files compiled from 2008 to 2014, the Russian military described the scenarios of preparation for the invasion of China and the directions of the Chinese attacks as the criteria for a potential nuclear response by the Russian Federation.
This is the first time we have seen such documents published in the public domain. They show that the operational threshold for the use of nuclear weapons is quite low, if the desired result cannot be achieved with the help of conventional means, — commented Oleksandr Gabuyev, director of the Berlin Carnegie Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies.
Although these files date back ten years or more, analysts say they are still relevant to modern Russian military doctrine.
The scenarios of the nuclear weapons use by Russia
According to Financial Times experts, Russia's tactical nuclear weapons, which can be delivered by land-based or sea-based missiles, as well as from aircraft, are intended for limited combat use in Europe and Asia, as opposed to larger "strategic" weapons designed to strike the US.
The current partnership with China, which after the invasion of Ukraine strengthened the Russian Federation's status as a younger brother, the Kremlin's political and military elites show a deep-seated suspicion of the eastern neighbour. However, even as the countries grew closer, classified training materials show that Russia's Eastern Military District rehearsed numerous scenarios depicting a Chinese invasion.
Training presentations for the Russian military, experts say, reveal the essence of how Russia views its nuclear arsenal — as the cornerstone of its defence policy with the ability to deliver a nuclear first strike.
For example, one of the presentations describing a hypothetical attack by China emphasized that Russia referred to as the "Northern Federation" for war games, could respond with a tactical nuclear strike to stop the "South" from advancing with a second wave of invasion forces.
According to experts, the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons of the Russian Federation is presented as a set of factors under which the losses suffered by the Russian troops will "irreversibly lead to their inability to stop the aggression of a major enemy" which is a "critical situation for the state security of Russia".
Other potential conditions include the destruction of 20% of Russia's ballistic missile submarines, 30% of its nuclear attack submarines, three or more cruisers, three airfields, or a simultaneous strike on the main and reserve shore command centers.
In the files, according to analysts of the publication, the conditions under which the Russian military can also use tactical nuclear weapons for a wide range of purposes, including "deterring states from the use of aggression... or the escalation of military conflicts", "stopping aggression", preventing loss battles or territories by Russian troops, or to make, for example, the Russian fleet "more effective".
