The Ukrainian military will be able to launch a new counter-offensive, but not before 2025, if the situation at the front is optimistic.
What is known about the prospects of a new counteroffensive of the Armed Forces
The article notes that since the Ukrainian military's counteroffensive this year has not achieved its goals amid problems with military support from Western partners, the Armed Forces will now be forced to move to defence to prevent further advances by the Russian army.
If the situation at the front remains favourable for the Ukrainian Armed Forces next year, Ukraine will be able to launch a new counteroffensive in the spring of 2025.
The article notes that Ukraine is currently in a very difficult geopolitical situation.
The authors of the publication emphasise that the lack of expected results of the AFU's counteroffensive and problems with military assistance from the US and EU countries are taking place against the backdrop of Russia's transition to a military state and increased pressure on the positions of the Ukrainian military at the front.
The war enters a new phase
The journalists also drew attention to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's recent statement about the construction of defensive fortifications along the frontline.
In their opinion, this indicates that the war is entering a new phase.
While at the beginning of the full-scale war, the Armed Forces of Ukraine resorted to manoeuvre defence tactics, the trench warfare tactics used in Donbas after 2014 are now returning.
It is also emphasised that in the first weeks of the Russian invasion, there were warnings that the war would be long, but the incredible success of the AFU in the autumn of 2022 dispelled vain hopes of a quick victory.
The authors also note that if Ukraine and its Western partners overcome the current difficulties and military support for Kyiv continues, then, under the best-case scenario, Ukraine will spend the next year rebuilding its military capabilities and resources.
Another hope is that Russia will lose significant momentum in its attempts to breach Ukraine's defences. Ultimately, this should mean that in the spring of 2025, Ukraine will again have the potential to attack - if it survives 2024.
