According to the NBU, the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine on the penultimate day of 2024 renewed its historical maximum, exceeding the mark of 42 hryvnias.
Points of attention
- The dollar exchange rate in Ukraine hit a historic high, exceeding 42 hryvnias, with forecasts indicating a gradual increase in 2025.
- Factors such as high inflation, rising consumer prices, and the volume of the harvest will influence the dollar exchange rate in the coming year.
- The NBU predicts a stable dollar exchange rate with a devaluation of the hryvnia not exceeding 10% by the end of 2025.
- The government aims for an average dollar exchange rate of UAH 45.0 in 2025, in line with analysts' forecasts.
- Analysts project continued growth of the dollar against the hryvnia, with expectations of the dollar reaching 45.5-46 UAH by the end of the next year.
What is known about the new historical maximum in the dollar-hryvnia ratio?
The NBU set the official exchange rate for December 31 at 42.039 UAH per 1 dollar.
The previous increase was recorded on December 24 and amounted to 41.9910 UAH/dollar.
Over the year, the exchange rate increased by 4 hryvnias (10.7%) from 37.98 UAH/dollar as of December 31, 2023.
On the interbank market today, the rate increased by 11 kopecks to 42.06-42.09 UAH/dollar (buy-sell) compared to the previous day's close.
On the cash market, the dollar exchange rate increased by 20 kopecks to 42.40 hryvnias.
At the same time, the euro exchange rate as of December 31 is 43.9266 UAH/euro, which is 18 kopecks higher compared to December 30.
How will the dollar exchange rate grow in Ukraine in 2025?
According to analysts' forecasts, in 2025 the dollar will continue its gradual growth against the hryvnia.
The budget for 2025 includes an average exchange rate of 45.0 UAH/dollar.
The government expects the average dollar exchange rate to increase:
2025 to 45.0 hryvnias (45.6 as of December),
2026 to 46.5 hryvnias (45.9 as of December),
2027 to 46.4 hryvnias (46.2 as of December).
According to the NBU's forecasts, high inflation and rising consumer prices will persist in the first half of 2025, which will also have an impact on the dollar exchange rate.
However, the most important factor, according to experts, will be the volume of the harvest next year.
Analysts predict that by the end of 2025 prices will grow by 6.8-7.2%.
The devaluation of the hryvnia should not exceed 10%.
By the end of next year, the dollar is forecast to be worth 45.5-46 UAH.
