The National Bank of Ukraine raised the forecast of real GDP growth in 2024 to 4%.
Points of attention
- The National Bank of Ukraine has raised the forecast of real GDP growth in 2024 to 4% despite challenges from Russian attacks, migration, and labor shortages.
- Factors such as budget incentives, international financing, increase in household incomes, and stable external demand are expected to contribute to further economic growth in Ukraine by 4.3-4.6% in 2025-2026.
- The World Bank expects the Ukrainian economy to grow by 3.2% by the end of 2024, with forecasts of 2% growth in 2025 and 7% growth in 2026.
- As of September 2024, the total state and guaranteed public debt of Ukraine has reached 155 billion dollars, with foreign debt accounting for 72% of the total amount.
- The national debt of Ukraine has become cheaper and more long-term, with a weighted average cost decrease of 21.8% and an average maturity of over 11 years since the beginning of 2024.
Ukraine's GDP will continue to grow
Andriy Pishniy, head of the National Bank, said this at the briefing.
Waves of Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, increased migration and labor shortages hampered the economic recovery, but real GDP continued to grow, both in the second and third quarters of 2024. Moreover, a smaller-than-expected deficit of electricity and slightly higher yields of early grain crops allowed the NBU to increase the forecast of real GDP growth in 2024 to 4%.
Andriy Pishniy
Chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine
According to him, significant budget incentives supported by substantial amounts of international financing, an increase in household incomes, as well as an increase in output in crop production and stable external demand will contribute to the further growth of the Ukrainian economy — by 4.3-4.6% in 2025-2026.
Instead, the World Bank expects that by the end of 2024, the Ukrainian economy will grow by 3.2%.
According to the Bank's forecast, Ukraine's GDP will grow by 2% in 2025, and 7% in 2026.
What is known about the national debt of Ukraine
According to the Ministry of Finance, as of the end of September, the total amount of the state and guaranteed public debt of Ukraine increased to 155 billion dollars.
It is noted that the amount of foreign debt is currently 112.1 billion dollars, or 72% of the total amount of the national debt.
During the third quarter, the total volume of state and guaranteed state debt increased by $3.5 billion (UAH 241 billion).
At the same time, the department noted that the national debt of Ukraine has become cheaper and more long-term.
Since the beginning of 2024, as of September 30, its weighted average cost has decreased by 21.8% — from 6.24 to 4.88 percent. The average maturity of the state debt is more than 11 years.
