The head of the National Bank, Andriy Pyshnyi, predicts that the dollar exchange rate will fluctuate during the current year under the influence of external factors. According to him, it is primarily about seasonality and changes within the market.
The dollar exchange rate in 2024. What Ukrainians should prepare for
As the head of the regulator notes, the NBU will be present in the foreign exchange market and smooth out excessive and dangerous fluctuations.
Andriy Pishnyi also explained that his team is committed to maintaining exchange rate stability and further popularizing the hryvnia.
The banker considers one of the most important decisions of the National Bank in 2023 to be the transition from a fixed to a managed flexible exchange rate.
What is essential to understand is that against the background of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the regulator was forced to introduce a fixed exchange rate.
As you know, in July 2022, the dollar exchange rate reached 36.6 hryvnias.
This became the reason for the formation of the multiplicity of the exchange rate, that is, its division into interbank, official, in exchange offices and on the gray market. The difference between the exchange rates was significant and it caused the instability of the financial market.
The National Bank has actively fought against the created plurality in this connection.
According to Andrii Pyshnyi, when this difference in exchange rates is significant, arbitrage, speculation and the inability to ensure exchange rate stability and, importantly, to form expectations of stability arise.
It is impractical to forecast the exchange rate now, but the NBU is preparing to regulate the financial market. As before, hryvnia savings will bring significant income, while foreign currency deposits will remain profitable, the NBU chief emphasises.
The National Bank answered why the dollar began to rise in January
The deputy head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Serhii Nikolaychuk, draws attention to how many factors influence the weakening of the hryvnia at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024.
According to him, it is about the rapid growth of demand for foreign currency and the increase of budget expenditures.
Accordingly, now the fluctuations in the interbank market are somewhat greater than, for example, in October. At the same time, thanks to the established prerequisites, they are not threatening. Also, exchange rate fluctuations remain significantly smaller than before the full-scale war, Nikolaychuk noted.
