According to the forecasts of the National Bank of Ukraine, during 2024-2025, another 700,000 citizens will go abroad.
Points of attention
- First of all, the mass migration of Ukrainians is caused by the destruction of the Ukrainian energy system as a result of Russian strikes.
- The normalization of economic conditions and security risks determine the timing of the return of migrants, which may begin no earlier than 2026.
- The return of migrants will be gradual due to the process of adaptation in a new place and complicated conditions in Ukraine.
What exactly causes the mass migration of Ukrainians
The current situation is reflected in the regulator's inflation report.
The National Bank team draws attention to the fact that the new forecast for the outflow of Ukrainian citizens from the country has worsened compared to what was in the April inflation report.
First of all, this happened due to the significant destruction of the Ukrainian energy system as a result of Russian strikes.
The situation is also affected by power outages and increased risks for the heating season.
In addition to everyday difficulties, frequent outages negatively affect production processes, which reduces economic activity and demand for labor, additionally stimulating migration, the NBU will explain.
The slow normalization of economic conditions due to high security risks also remains an important factor.
When to expect the situation to improve
According to preliminary data, the net return of migrants to Ukraine may begin in 2 years — in 2026.
However, what is important to understand is that it will be gradual — it will involve about 400,000 people.
As the regulator notes, this will be due to the fact that due to the long stay abroad, adaptation to the new place will increase, and the conditions in Ukraine, including due to power outages, will be more difficult than previously anticipated.
The number of internally displaced persons will also remain significant, because according to surveys, a significant part of them have nowhere to return due to significant destruction, — warns the National Bank of Ukraine.
