What is the approximate production rate and what might be the current stock of Kalibr missiles, which Russia plans to use to hit Ukraine — military experts are analyzing.
How many Kalibr missiles is Russia preparing to strike Ukraine?
Analysts calculated the approximate number of "caliber" missiles that the enemy may have.
On the air of the telethon, the head of the DIU Kyrylo Budanov said that the Russians will probably use Kalibr sea-based cruise missiles in the near future to attack Ukraine, because the enemy of the Kyrgyz Republic has been stockpiling such missiles for a long time.
Calibers accumulated throughout this period. They are completely ready for use.
In the near future, I think we will see "Calibre" again, because the number of X-101 has decreased significantly ... There are regulations, documents, decisions. The enemy needed to renew the supply of missiles of the fleet, because they were significantly reduced at that time. They fulfilled this task. That is, now they are technically ready for their use. While the fleet was stockpiling its missiles, the Russian Aerospace Forces used the Kh-101.
Kyrylo Budanov
Head of DIU
Such a message may look somewhat dissonant against the background of the fact that previously the issue of the possible use of "Calibers" for strikes against Ukraine was not on the agenda. Also, against the background of comments that almost all missile carriers (except for one Zyklon corvette) were transferred from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk by the Russian occupiers, and there seems to be no technical possibility to load cruise missiles onto frigates, corvettes and submarines there.
Logically, the question arises as to how many Kalibr cruise missiles the Russian invaders could have accumulated by this point.
To find an answer to this question, we can rely on the data on the number of missiles in the Russian Federation as of November 2023, which was then stated by the representative of the same DIU, Vadym Skibitsky.
At that time, it was about the fact that as of November last year, according to our intelligence, the Russians had an accumulated stock of 165 KRMB "Caliber". If we take into account the data known at that time, the production rate of "Calibers" could vary from 20 to 35 units per month.
Based on this, and also from the fact that four months later, the Rashtriyas decided almost not to use "Caliber" for shelling of Ukraine, then we can be talking about the fact that the enemy's stock of KR of this type could grow in the range from +80 units to + 120 units, or to the range from 245 units to 285 units.
For comparison, purely to illustrate the trend — as of the same November 2023, the Russian invaders had only 160 air-based cruise missiles of the X-101/555/55 type in stock, i.e. already here "at the start" the number of air-based cruise missiles turned out to be somewhat smaller, than the number of Calibers.
In addition, it is worth considering the following point — if we rely on the official reports of the Air Force, then in the period from March 21 to 31, 2024, the Russian invaders fired a total of 133 Kh-101/555/55 air-based cruise missiles over Ukraine.
Against this background, it seems logical to assess that as the available stock of air-based cruise missiles is exhausted, the Russians can "unpack" the stock of "Calibers". But at the same time, the Russians can still rely on the same X-101s to carry out strikes on our critical infrastructure.
The announcement that the Russian Federation has begun production of the Kh-101 with two warheads, and this missile has really become twice as dangerous, indicates in particular that the enemy seeks to maximize the effect of using such missiles with a possible reduction in the intensity of launches.
What is known about Kalibr missiles
Kalibr is a family of cruise missiles developed by the Russian design bureau Novator.
They are designed to attack land, sea, underwater and surface targets.
They were publicly presented for the first time at the International Aviation and Space Salon in 1993 (MAKS-93), which was held in the Moscow region of the Russian Federation.
The Russian Federation has:
Kalibr missile systems for arming submarines (Kalibr-PLE, export designation Club-S);
missile complexes for arming combat surface ships (Kalybr-NKE, export designation Club-N);
Kalibr-M mobile missile complexes (export designation Club-M);
Caliber-A air-based missile weapon systems (export designation Club-A).
According to public sources, the firing range of Kalibr missiles at sea targets reaches 375 km, and at land targets — 2,600 km.
Such missiles can fly at low altitudes, which makes it difficult for air defense.
