The United States is strengthening the provision of military advice to Ukraine and currently recommends that Kyiv consolidate its positions, maintain its defenses and build up its forces and weapons throughout the year, writes The New York Times.
The US advises Ukraine to consolidate its current positions for success at the front
Some in the US military want Ukraine to follow a "hold and build" strategy - to focus on keeping the territory it has and building its own. The United States believes that this strategy will increase Ukraine's self-sufficiency and provide Kiev with the ability to repel any new Russian aggression.
According to the publication, such a strategy aims to create a sufficiently credible threat that Russia could consider participating in meaningful negotiations at the end of next year or in 2025.
At the same time, Ukrainian officials are studying strategies based on successful deep strikes in Crimea last fall. They are looking for creative ways to destabilize Russia by attacking weapons factories, weapons depots, and munitions rail lines and to score symbolic victories.
The publication writes that one former Ukrainian high-ranking military official refused to discuss the proposals but said the new plan was being finalized and was "very bold."
American officials are convinced that without a new strategy and additional funding, Ukraine may lose the war.
Officials in the US presidential administration say Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is betting on declining US support, pointing to his recent claims that if Ukraine runs out of NATO-provided ammunition, Russia will win within days.
The publication reminds that the USA has provided Ukraine enormous military and economic support — more than $111 billion in the last two years. But a significant number of Republicans now say they oppose further spending, while others are demanding to see a new strategy before they vote for any additional funds.
American officials say that many Ukrainian leaders do not realize how unstable the continued financing of the war by the United States is. These Ukrainian generals and senior civilian officials have unrealistic expectations of what the US can deliver. In particular, according to them, the Ukrainians are asking for millions of artillery shells from Western stocks, which do not exist.
American officials say that Ukraine will have to fight with a limited budget.
In the US, they believe that without a change in strategy, 2024 could be like 1916, the deadliest year of the First World War, when thousands of young people died and the front lines changed very little.
The publication writes that Ukrainian hospitals are already full of wounded soldiers — ambulances were travelling back and forth from the front during this year's counteroffensive.
Ukraine has not released an official death toll, but officials admit that the losses were significant, the NYT notes.
At the same time, according to the publication, American high-ranking officials are open to some new ideas for Ukraine. In particular, they recognized that Ukraine's deep strikes in Crimea this fall proved deadly dangerous for Russia and became a bright spot in the failed counteroffensive. American strategists believe the Ukrainians can build on this success next year, even if a significant part of their energy will be spent rebuilding their forces.
General Christopher G. Cavoli, the Commander-in-chief of US forces in Europe, reportedly takes on a more significant role in coordinating with Ukrainian officials.
In addition, the Pentagon also decided to second lieutenant general Antonio Aguto Jr., who manages support for Ukraine from a base in Germany to Kyiv. General Aguto will work directly with the country's military leadership to improve the advice the United States offers.
It is reported that last week, top American military leaders, including General Cavoli and General Aguto, met with two Ukrainian senior officials at the headquarters of US Army Europe in Wiesbaden, Germany, to discuss the main directions of the strategy for the coming year.
The publication emphasizes that neither American nor Ukrainian officials disclosed the details of the talks or the new plan.
At the same time, analysts say that no matter the final agreement, a change in dynamics is critically important because the longer the war is perceived as a stalemate, the harder it will be to get additional American funding.
According to American government officials, Ukraine does not need to recapture all of the nearly 20 per cent of the territory it has lost to win the war. They are convinced that winning a few strategic and symbolic victories, strengthening defences and building up their capacity to produce more weapons may strengthen Ukraine's position when calls for peace talks to end the war inevitably resume.
American officials are now trying to prepare Ukrainians for next year, telling them that any aid approved by Congress is unlikely to match the amount of funding Washington provided in the first two years of the war.
The publication also writes that the 2023 campaign was not a complete failure — American officials, in particular, point to Ukraine's successful and devastating attacks on Russia's Black Sea Fleet and military command posts in Crimea.
According to some officials, it was a major naval victory for a nation that did not have a navy.
