Economic growth in Ukraine will be slow for two years. The economy will accelerate only in 2026, provided that Russia's war against our country ends.
Points of attention
- Ukraine's economic growth is expected to be slow for two years, with a potential acceleration in 2026 upon the end of the war with Russia.
- The slowdown in economic growth in Ukraine is attributed to factors such as reduced external demand, labor shortages, and power outages caused by the ongoing conflict.
- The World Bank predicts Ukraine's economic growth to slow to 2% in the current year before rebounding to 5.2% in 2026 if hostilities cease and recovery efforts begin.
Ukraine's economy can only start growing in 2026
This is stated in the World Bank forecast for Europe and Central Asia.
As the review notes, against the backdrop of ongoing hostilities, economic growth in Ukraine slowed to 2.9% in 2024 from 5.5% in 2023.
Reduced external demand, labor shortages, and subsequent power outages due to the war were among the main factors in the decline in growth.
The World Bank expects growth in Ukraine to slow further to 2% this year before accelerating to 5.2% in 2026, "assuming hostilities end and recovery begins."
According to the World Bank, growth in emerging economies in Europe and Central Asia will slow significantly to 2.5% on average in 2025-26 amid deep global uncertainty. Growth was 3.7% in 2023 and 3.6% in 2024.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in April worsened the forecast for the growth of Ukraine's real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 to 3.1%.
According to the NBU forecast, in 2026 the economy will grow by 3.7% (previous forecast — 4.0%), in 2027 GDP will increase by 3.9% (previous forecast — 4.2%).
According to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine's GDP growth in 2024 slowed to 2.9% compared to 5.5% in 2023. The GDP growth forecast included in the 2025 budget is 2.7% per year.
In March, the IMF updated its baseline scenario, according to which Russia's war against Ukraine will end by the end of 2025. This scenario assumes that Ukraine's economy will grow by 2-3% in 2025 and accelerate to 4.5% in 2026.
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