Even before the start of the presidential elections in the USA, Donald Trump already instructed the representatives of the Republican Party in the House of Representatives to block the approval of the issue of financing aid to Ukraine.
What is known about Trump's attempts to prevent the approval of aid to Ukraine
According to the journalists of the publication, although the Senate may approve a package of bills, including the financing of aid to Ukraine, the position of the representatives of the Republican Party in the House of Representatives remains unchanged.
As a result, it is becoming increasingly unlikely that military aid to Ukraine will pass through Congress in the coming months — or even this year. The consequences of such a decision can be catastrophic. Ukraine is already suffering from a shortage of ammunition — in particular, artillery shells. This year, this problem will become even more acute, which will lead to more and more dangerous consequences, the publication says.
According to Jack Watlinagh from the Royal Institute of the Armed Forces, the current situation with a shortage of ammunition in the Ukrainian military has already increased casualties.
At the same time, it is noted that the Armed Forces command cannot plan without knowing when new batches of ammunition will arrive.
In addition, it is noted that the lack of ammunition affects the willingness of volunteers to join the ranks of Ukrainian defenders.
However, as noted in the article, one of the most positive news for Ukraine recently was the EU's approval of the allocation of 50 billion euros as part of the Ukraine Facility aid program.
The material's authors emphasise that the defence industry is not yet ready to cover the lack of US aid to Ukraine.
What threatens Ukraine with the termination of aid from the United States
It is noted that at least the second half of this year will be very dangerous for Ukraine.
Watling believes that the consequences of the shortage of ammunition will be felt slowly at first, and then the situation will develop rapidly. He warns, "When the consequences become obvious, it will be too late."
Trump and his Republican supporters don't seem to care. They are apparently willing to risk a Russian victory — if it even slightly improves Trump's chances of defeating President Joe Biden in November. Some reluctance of Republicans to accept new aid to Ukraine is caused by sincere skepticism about the conflict. But in most cases, this is simply Trump's refusal to give Biden something that looks like a "victory" before the presidential election, the authors of the publication note.
Last year, Republicans demanded that military aid to Ukraine be tied to new measures and money for border protection in the US, and Democrats agreed.
But Trump and Republicans refuse to take yes for an answer. Trump apparently wants to push the idea that Biden has presided over chaos and failure — from the southern border to Kabul and Kyiv. If Ukraine's freedom and Europe's security become collateral damage in Trump's quest to win back the White House, the former president appears to consider it a price worth paying. It is even possible that he will be happy about the Ukrainian defeat — if it happens just before the presidential elections and allows him to blow up his favorite claims about the weakness and failure of the Biden administration, — the article says.
The authors of the publication note that Trump could not do any of this on his own.
In particular, the agreement of representatives of the Republican Party in the House of Representatives to comply with Trump's demands is critical.
Trump's victories in the presidential primaries have convinced most Republicans that they must obey even more slavishly.
If he continues to demand that no aid to Ukraine go through Congress, House Republicans will almost certainly comply.
Russian President Vladimir Putin probably can't believe his luck. But in some sense this is not luck, but payback for long-term Russian investments. Trump calls accusations that the Kremlin worked to get him elected in 2016 a "Russian hoax." But there is a lot of evidence of Moscow's intervention aimed at Trump's benefit, analysts emphasize.
Analysts believe that even now, Putin is using every opportunity to fix what has gotten out of control of Trump's ego.
Russian school textbooks support Trump's favourite conspiracy theory that the 2020 US presidential election was stolen.
Putin made a long-term bet on Trump.
Unless Congress changes its mind at the last moment, this bet may finally pay off — on the battlefields of Ukraine.
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