During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union were able to agree on one thing: nuclear proliferation is bad for everyone. Such confidence now, under Donald Trump, seems weaker than ever. All because of the US president's "pivot" to Russia and his disdain for NATO.
Points of attention
- President Trump's policies are prompting allied countries to rethink their security in light of the possible abandonment of the US nuclear shield.
- An increase in the number of countries with nuclear weapons could cause profound changes in international relations and threaten global stability.
- The analysis shows that in the event of the collapse of the NPT, the world could approach 15-25 states with nuclear weapons, which would create new challenges for global security.
Trump “pierced” NATO’s nuclear umbrella
This is forcing the "old allies" — Germany, Poland, South Korea and Japan — to think about what seemed unthinkable: how to prepare for the potential abandonment of the US nuclear shield.
The Trump phenomenon has become a powerful stimulus for voices in US allies who now believe that nuclear weapons in their own hands fundamentally solve the problem created by American unreliability, says Ankit Panda of the Carnegie Endowment think tank.
According to the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty), the number of official nuclear-weapon states is limited to the United States, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom—the five permanent members of the UN Security Council.
India, Israel, and Pakistan, which never signed the pact, have also developed nuclear weapons, as has North Korea, the only country to have withdrawn from the NPT. Analysts fear that if the NPT collapses, in part because of the US withdrawal of guarantees, the world could approach 15 to 25 nuclear-armed states.
Future German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said his country must now examine the question of "whether nuclear fission or at least the nuclear umbrella of Great Britain and France can be extended to them."
Germany has hosted American nuclear weapons since 1983. Today, about 20 American B61 nuclear bombs are stored at Büchel Air Base, 100 kilometers south of Cologne. German officials are trying to emphasize that the United States has given no indication that it is going to dismantle its "nuclear shield."
Prime Minister Donald Tusk became the first leader of the country to raise the idea of creating nuclear weapons or seeking an agreement to share them with France.
Polish President Andrzej Duda, for his part, has said it would be better to move American warheads to Poland. At the same time, Poland does not have its own nuclear power plant. It has committed to building one within a decade, so it still lacks the infrastructure and experience of other European countries.
Duda claims that Poland will need "decades" to create its own nuclear weapons.
The steady progress of North Korea's own nuclear weapons program, Kim Jong-un's blossoming relationship with illegitimate Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Trump's return to power are all fueling deep anxiety in South Korea about its security.
"Support for South Korea acquiring its own nuclear weapons is expanding and strengthening," says Sangshin Lee, a research fellow at the state-run Korea Institute for National Unification think tank.
Japan's unique status as the only country to have fallen victim to atomic warfare has made the issue of acquiring nuclear weapons perhaps the greatest political taboo throughout its post-war history.
Japan was an early signatory to the NPT, but the peaceful use of nuclear energy and the opening of an enrichment plant in the early 1990s allowed it to accumulate a significant stockpile of material that could be used to create its own weapons.
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