Ukraine's military strategy for 2024 is to endure to win in 2025. Ukraine's Defence forces need weapons and ammunition from allies to repel Russian attacks in the coming months.
Development of events in the coming months
Politico asked analysts, officers and military experts to express their views on the war's course.
This year will be one of “recovery and preparation on both sides, like 1916 and 1941-42 in the last world wars,” said Marc Thys, who retired as Belgium’s deputy defense chief last year with the rank of lieutenant general..
None of the analysts could provide a precise roadmap for 2024, but all agreed that three main factors will determine the trajectory of events in the coming months:
Expectations must be tempered this spring, as Ukraine will not have the equipment or personnel for a significant counteroffensive;
Russia, with the help of its allies, has secured superiority in artillery and, together with non-stop ground attacks, is striking Ukrainian positions;
Without Western air defence, long-range missiles, and artillery shells, it will be difficult for Kyiv to create a reliable, sustainable defence.
Politico points out that Russia is able to advance because it cares little about the lives of its troops. The Ukrainian military estimated that the capture of Avdiivka cost Russia 47,000 soldiers.
Ammunition problem
The Ministry of Defense of Estonia estimates that the Russian Federation can produce from 1 million to 4.5 million artillery shells annually.
At the same time, Western countries are rushing to increase their ammunition production, and the United States plans to produce about 1 million rounds annually by the end of 2025, up from 190,000 before the war.
The EU's promise to send a million shells by March was not fulfilled; perhaps only 300,000 were delivered.
The US may have sent 2 million 155mm rounds since the start of the war, but those supplies have been depleted by a political deadlock in Washington over military aid to Ukraine.
Currently, instead of fighter jets or tanks, Kyiv is asking for long-range surveillance and strike drones and electronic warfare systems to jam Russian drones and ballistic missiles, the sources said.
Mobilisation in Ukraine
The Defence Forces of Ukraine number 800,000 people, with more than a million in the reserves.
Efforts to increase numbers by lowering the enlistment age from 27 to 25 — which would have added an estimated 400,000 men to the army — have met with resistance.
However, Ukraine needs more people to withdraw exhausted soldiers from the front and create new units of trained troops.
Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said 2024 "will be a year of strategic development and defence for Ukraine and the Euro-Atlantic community — a time to create the necessary military and industrial base."
By 2025, Ukraine may have enough skills and means to defeat Russia, he said.
Keeping faith in victory
Most Europeans support Ukraine, but the vast majority believe it will lose the war with Russia, according to polls.
The pessimism owes much to the fact that deliveries of aid have slowed in recent months.
Ukrainian analyst Taras Chmut says that much depends on whether Republican leaders in the US Congress will abandon their opposition to the aid package for Ukraine.
However, the ex-US Army commander in Europe, General Ben Hodges, gives several reasons for optimism:
Ukraine maintains a viable defence and remains resolute,
F-16 fighter jets will begin arriving in the coming months,
The US may send more ATACMS ballistic missiles,
Germany is under pressure to transfer Taurus cruise missiles.
Wait a minute, this war has been going on for ten years. Russia has had every advantage, and after ten years, they only occupy 18 per cent of Ukraine," Hodges said. "They [have] lost half a million troops, the Black Sea Fleet is getting worse by the day, and the Air Force is unable to get air superiority. I think that Russia is actually in worse shape than we think.
Ben Hodges
US general
