Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to use nuclear threats as part of his long-running information campaign to discourage further Western support for Ukraine, according to a report by the US-based Institute for the Study of War.
Points of attention
- Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to use nuclear threats to thwart Western support for Ukraine.
- A possible strategic defeat of Russian troops on the battlefield in Ukraine could provoke Russia to use nuclear weapons.
- Experts believe that Russia can use nuclear weapons regardless of Western support for Ukraine.
- The use of nuclear threats is a way for the Russian Federation to manipulate international relations and influence processes in the geopolitical sphere.
- It is unlikely that the actual use of nuclear weapons by Russia will lead to actual nuclear escalation in the region.
Under what conditions will the Russian Federation use nuclear weapons
During a speech to Russian officers on June 21, Putin said that Russia plans to further develop its nuclear triad as a "guarantee of strategic deterrence" and to maintain the balance of power in the world. Putin noted that Russia is also working to increase its conventional combat capabilities and defense industrial production, the report said.
In addition, Putin said during a press conference in Vietnam on June 20 that Russia was considering "lowering the threshold" for the use of nuclear weapons in Russian nuclear doctrine and that a possible future strategic defeat of Russian forces on the battlefield in Ukraine would lead to "the end of the war."
Putin may have mistakenly equated Russia's defeat in Ukraine to an existential threat to the Russian state to refer to an "exceptional case" in which existing Russian nuclear doctrine allows for the use of nuclear weapons, ISW notes.
Putin's statements appear to be a continuation of his recent information operation aimed at sabotaging Western efforts to counter the Russian invasion.
At the same time, analysts stress, nuclear threats are a key aspect of Russia's ability to manipulate foreign decision-makers and are unlikely to lead to actual nuclear escalation.
Nuclear threats of the Russian Federation
In May, the former president of the Russian Federation, current deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmytro Medvedev, commented on the Russian nuclear exercises. According to him, the leaders of the West do not want to think logically in the context of the fact that helping Ukraine with manpower "will cause their countries to enter the war directly", to which the aggressor country "will have to respond".
At the same time, experts believe that Russia will use nuclear weapons regardless of whether the West will arm Ukraine.
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