Russia may continue to attack Ukraine with drones, but the real stockpile of missiles and the rate of their production do not allow the aggressor country to carry out regular large-scale missile strikes.
Analysts learned about the missile stockpile of Russia
The institute cited statistics on Russia's production of new missiles, which were made public on November 6 by the Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, Major General Vadym Skibitsky.
Thus, according to him, in October 2023, Russia produced 115 long-range precision-guided missiles. In particular, 30 units of Iskander-M cruise missiles, 12 units of Iskander-K cruise missiles, 20 — Kalibr cruise missiles, 40 — Kh-101 cruise missiles, 9 — Kh-32 cruise missiles, and 4 Kinzhal air-to-surface missiles were produced.
In November, the Russians had a total of 870 high-precision operational-strategic and strategic missiles in reserve, and this number increased by 285 units between August and November.
Although Ukrainian officials recently claimed that Russia had partially replenished its own cruise missile arsenal, Skibitsky's statements about the latest total stockpile of Russian missiles and monthly production rates indicate that the Russian military is not capable of withstanding repeated large-scale missile attacks like the one that occurred on 29 December. In particular, during the large-scale attack, the aggressor fired five Kinzhal missiles over Ukraine — the same number of systems of this type Russia produces every month, the report says.
At the same time, according to ISW, Russia can produce its own Shahed-136/131 drones at a much faster pace, but only if the production of these devices is established and expanded in the Alabuzka Special Economic Zone in the Republic of Tatarstan.
The Institute for Science and International Security reported on 13 November that even after a month-long production delay, the Alabuz-based facility plans to produce 1,400 Shahed-136 drones between February and October 2024. By September 2025, a total of 6,000 drones of this type are planned to be produced.
As a result, Russian troops are likely to be able to strike more consistently with Shaheds than with missiles, as Ukrainian officials have previously stated, ISW notes.
What is known about the largest shelling on December 29
On 29 December, Russia launched its largest missile attack on Ukraine since the start of the full-scale war.
In the evening, the aggressor launched kamikaze drones and later fired at cities with various types of missiles, including hypersonic ones. In total, 158 enemy targets were launched on Ukraine, and the air defence forces managed to shoot down 114 objects, 87 cruise missiles and 27 drones.
According to the latest data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs, more than 30 people were killed and more than 160 others were injured as a result of falling debris and rocket attacks in different regions.
US President Joe Biden has strongly condemned Russia's shelling of Ukraine. The head of the White House noted that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is trying to destroy Ukraine and its people, and stressed that he must be stopped.
Ukraine's Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Sergiy Kyslytsya, noted that as long as Russia is able to undermine the authority and integrity of the Security Council, it will be free to kill innocent people in Ukraine and beyond.
