Many Ukrainians are preparing for the weakening of the hryvnia during the winter holidays. However, there will be no significant changes.
What can be the exchange rate of the hryvnia during the New Year holidays
Expert Danylo Monin warns Ukrainians that the hryvnia may face devaluation. According to him, this may happen at the end of 2023.
Monin draws attention to the fact that the end of the year always means increased budget expenses.
It is also impossible to ignore the fact that the money goes partly to the purchase of currency.
The expert emphasizes that the regulator's team is ready to spend currency for financial assistance, so the devaluation will be insignificant, and the exchange rate is unlikely to fall below 37.5 hryvnias.
What is important to understand is that currency sales may increase slightly before the New Year holidays, as part of the population's savings will be spent on preparations.
However, it is unlikely that this will greatly affect the rate.
What is wrong with the policy of the National Bank
Danylo Monin does not hide that he is dissatisfied with the actions of the NBU team.
The expert draws attention to the fact that exchange rate formation is now a pure desire of the National Bank. And with the launch of the floating exchange rate, its behavior is illogical.
With a currency deficit of 3.3 billion dollars, one must have a slightly different logic, he notes.
According to Danylo Monin, with a trade deficit of 37–39 billion dollars, only devaluation awaits the currency.
Do you need to prepare for changes in the cash rate?
According to banker Taras Lesovoy, he does not believe that Ukrainians will feel the real impact of the expected average annual exchange rate on the cash market.
It is quite possible that we will feel only a psychological impact.
He assumes that the demand for the currency may increase situationally.
However, for the past 3 weeks, the foreign exchange market has been living in conditions of dominance of supply over demand, which was immediately reflected in the reduction of exchange rates. That is, I repeat, the "budget" rate is a guideline, and the actual rate will depend on a number of factors, the expert notes.
