The United States does not allow Ukraine to strike Russian territory with American weapons, while Kyiv needs it to stop the Russian offensive on Kharkiv.
Will Ukraine be able to hit the territory of Russia with American weapons
For months, Ukraine's fate has been held hostage by the US Congress, with US lawmakers blocking the aid package. Even after the approval of a package worth more than $60 billion, Kyiv's troops are in a difficult position.
Russia went on the offensive against Kharkiv, although the occupation of the city is unlikely. But this offensive demonstrates the price Ukraine is paying for US's lateness. It also emphasises the absurdity of US restrictions that prevent Kyiv from fighting Russia on its territory.
Dramatic changes took place on the battlefield around Kharkiv. The Russians tried to conquer the city in early 2022, but the plans failed. A few months later, a Ukrainian counteroffensive knocked Russian troops out of the region. But now the Russians are back and actively resisting Ukraine's weak defence.
Fortunately for Ukraine, Russia's forces are likely insufficient to capture the city. This attack appears to be aimed at less important but necessary targets.
First, Putin wants to create a buffer zone to protect his border. Ukrainian forces attacked the Russian city of Belgorod and sent Russian volunteers on a raid across the border. Putin needs to stop these attacks.
The dictator also wants to return Kharkiv to the range of Russian artillery. Even if he cannot take the city, he will try to make it uninhabitable. Last but not least, Moscow is trying to weaken Kyiv's troops before its offensive.
Russia's main thrust is likely to be in the east, not around Kharkiv. The goal will be to capture as much of Donbas as possible. Attacks are being carried out on such key objects as Chasiv Yar.
Moscow seems to believe that Ukraine does not have the manpower or firepower to defend itself anywhere. If Ukraine commits limited forces to defend Kharkiv, the Defence Forces will be more vulnerable to an assault from the east.
In this way, Kharkiv reveals a lot about Russia's strategy — and about the reasons for Ukraine's current situation, the publication writes.
Price of American timidity
Kyiv is currently in a dangerous gap between the moment of approval of US aid and the moment of its delivery in large quantities. Until then, Ukrainian forces are in dire need of everything from ammunition to small arms, artillery and anti-aircraft defences. The setbacks Ukraine is currently suffering are partly the price of a six-month delay in American aid.
The situation also exposes Ukraine's internal problems. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Ukrainian lawmakers delayed mobilising additional troops to counter Russian offensives. Ukraine was also in no hurry to build complex multi-layered fortifications, the kind that Russia used with success. Ukrainian forces are now digging in, but they are doing so late and under fire.
It was no secret to anyone that Russia was preparing to attack Kharkiv, although the timing obviously surprised the Ukrainians. However, there is little Kyiv can do to prevent the build-up, which is taking place directly abroad, because the United States opposes the use of American capabilities for cross-border attacks.
This is what it means in practice. Ukraine cannot use US-provided Highly Mobile Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) to destroy ammunition depots or command posts on the Russian side of the border, nor can it use newly delivered long-range missiles to attack military or logistical facilities in Russia. Kyiv will also not be able to use US-provided air defence assets to engage Russian aircraft using glide bombs to strike the front line around Kharkiv without leaving Russian airspace.
Such a policy makes no sense from a moral point of view — and is strategically destructive. President Joe Biden's calculation is that using American weapons to attack Russian territory would be too escalatory. Putin, characteristically, is playing on this fear, threatening to attack NATO countries if their weapons are used in this way. But this threat is questionable, given that an attack on NATO countries would fundamentally change this war. It will no longer be a Russia-Ukraine conflict, which Putin can still win. It will be a Russia-NATO conflict, in which he will definitely lose, the newspaper writes.
Not everyone shares Biden's warning: the British government has said it will not prevent Ukraine from using British weapons in cross-border attacks. Perhaps the US will follow suit. Indeed, this is part of what one British official described to me as London's ‘Scrappy-Doo’ strategy, which involves encouraging the ‘Scooby’ (i.e. the US) to be a little bolder.
Previously, Biden's strategy changed: he repeatedly refused to provide certain weapons to Ukraine, fearing escalation, and then relented. There are hints that the US position on cross-border strikes may also change. This change must happen now — to help Ukraine survive the terrible months ahead, the publication writes.
