According to Swedish Army Lt. Col. Joakim Paasikivi, there are currently several threatening scenarios of possible NATO split in the event of an attack by Russia.
Will Russia's attack threaten to split NATO?
If NATO is united, the Russians will lose. But there are certain nuances. Such a development could turn into a global nuclear war. It would be a pretty bad day for everyone. Nobody wants that. So Russia will use the threat of nuclear global or intercontinental retaliation to try to split NATO. If there is no cohesion in NATO — there is no Article 5, — explains Paasikivi.
The Swedish military emphasized that according to one of the likely scenarios, from his point of view, Russia will begin to create a threat and destabilize the situation in the area of the Svalbard islands in the Arctic.
Most of Svalbard is a demilitarized territory of Norway, but there is also some Russian activity there.
If the Russians try to stage provocations on Svalbard — which they started talking about a few years ago — it will become a challenge for those members of the Alliance who have interests in the Arctic: the USA, Canada, Britain, the Scandinavian countries. But will this be a problem for Turkey? For Montenegro? For the rest of the Alliance? This can become one of the ways to put pressure on NATO and try to split it, Paasikivi notes.
How a Russian attack could split NATO
According to him, another option could be a lightning attack by Russia on the Baltic states and the Kremlin's serious nuclear threats to other NATO member states.
The lieutenant colonel of the Swedish army explained that Russia has more chances of success in a confrontation with individual EU and NATO countries than in a war against the entire bloc.
With the new US president. With Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán and Slovak Prime Minister Fico, who echo Putin in the European Union and NATO. The question is whether we will be united or not. If we are united and Russia attacks a NATO country, it will lose. Maybe with nuclear escalation, but it will lose. This is a fact. If they manage to do something below NATO's "pain threshold" and we do not unite, they will have a much better chance, Paasikivi warns.
