Since the start of the Kursk operation on August 6, the Ukrainian military managed to take control of most of the region and capture hundreds of Russian soldiers.
Points of attention
- The Kursk operation by the Ukrainian military has resulted in significant territorial gains and capture of Russian soldiers, enhancing Ukraine's strategic position.
- Ukraine is leveraging the success of the Kursk operation to counter negative narratives, potentially changing the balance of power in the conflict.
- Analysts highlight the importance of understanding the risks associated with maintaining control of the Kursk region, especially during the winter period.
- The transfer of units to Kursk from eastern Ukraine demonstrates Ukraine's strategic calculations to hold the region as a bargaining chip in negotiations.
- Despite the success in Kursk, Ukraine still faces material imbalances in the war with Russia, with Moscow maintaining superiority in manpower, equipment, and ammunition.
What is known about the benefits received by Ukraine from the Kursk operation
Michael Kofman, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Rob Lee, a senior researcher at the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies, note that by transferring units from the combat zone in eastern Ukraine, in particular, in Donetsk region, to Kurshchyna, the command of the Ukrainian army is betting on the fact that the occupying army The Russian Federation will not succeed in other areas of the front.
In addition, the command of the Ukrainian army is counting on minor losses during the Kursk operation, and an advantage in benefits over risks.
Politically, Ukraine is also likely betting that it will be able to hold Kursk long enough to use it as a bargaining chip should Kyiv be pressured to negotiate. But this territory can make the situation even more difficult for the Ukrainian military in winter, analysts emphasize.
How the Kursk situation will affect the further course of the war
At the same time, they note that the successful Kursk operation of the Armed Forces destroyed all the negative narratives spread by the Kremlin about the impending defeat of Ukraine.
Analysts also assume that this will contribute to the removal by Western partners of restrictions on the use of their weapons for strikes on the territory of the Russian Federation, and will also strengthen military support for Ukraine.
In addition, the operation in the Kursk region will make Moscow think about the fact that there are still options in Ukraine, and that the outcome of this war has not yet been decided. The offensive will not correct the existing material imbalance in the war. Currently, Russia maintains an advantage in manpower, equipment and ammunition, - emphasize Rob Lee and Michael Kofman.
The article notes that for now Russia is trying to save forces and is not transferring reserves from key areas of the front in Ukraine, trying to maintain pressure with the help of an offensive in Donetsk region and Kharkiv region.
