Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) note that only with military support from the United States will Ukraine be able to hold back the advance of the occupation army of the Russian Federation.
What is happening at the front and why the aid from the US is critically important for Ukraine
The ISW emphasizes that currently the criminal army of the Russian Federation continues its offensive on three areas of the front, and it is becoming increasingly difficult for the Ukrainian military to maintain its defense due to the acute shortage of artillery ammunition and air defense systems.
The aggravation of the situation on the eastern front was confirmed by the Chief of the Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi.
He noted that the Russian occupiers are carrying out large-scale attacks with the support of armored vehicles in the direction of Liman, in the Bakhmut and Pokrovsk regions of Donetsk region.
Dry, hot weather also favors the enemy offensive.
At the same time, the criminal army of the Russian Federation is pulling new reserves to the eastern front, despite numerous losses in its own offensive.
Russia's efforts in the Lyman, Pokrovsky, and Chasvoy Yar directions pursue operationally important objectives, but these operations are not mutually supportive, and Russian forces still appear to be alternating emphasis between different directions rather than leaning toward all three in any one direction moment of time, — the analysts' report notes.
ISW notes that due to constant military support from the US and its partners, the Ukrainian military managed to repulse the offensives of the operational level of the occupation army of the Russian Federation during the last two years since the beginning of the war unleashed by the Kremlin.
How the Russian army uses the lack of aid to Ukraine from the US and changes the situation at the front to its own advantage
However, currently, the acute shortage of artillery ammunition and air defense systems makes the defense line of the Armed Forces very vulnerable to attacks by the Russian invaders.
Analysts assume that the command of the occupying army of the Russian Federation is betting on the fact that Ukraine will not be able to offer constant resistance to the attempts of the Kremlin's invaders in the conditions of a reduction or complete cessation of aid from the United States.
At the beginning of 2024, the Russian troops identified the capture of Avdiyivka as a priority task, in parallel with the simultaneous, but less intensive operations on the Kupyansk — Svatove — Kreminna line, then concentrated on the Lymansky direction, slightly reducing the pace near Avdiyivka, and in March-April 2024 they will intensify efforts to seize the Time Ravine, analysts emphasize.
At the same time, ISW notes that the occupying Russian army lacks the resources to conduct more than one effective offensive operation.
However, the occupiers now have the opportunity to alternate several offensive efforts in order to "stretch" the forces of Ukraine in the absence of Ukrainian artillery and anti-aircraft defense.
This scheme even allowed some of the Russian units in less intensive areas to rest and recover while the Ukrainians were attacked by those units that had rested earlier or had recently received reinforcements.
Later, the Russian command can at any time intensify efforts in another operational direction, forcing the Defense Forces of Ukraine to redeploy its defense resources in the theater of operations and create vulnerabilities that the Russians can exploit.
In addition, it is said that as of now, the Russian invaders are creating reserves of operational and strategic level, which will help not only to support the current offensive operations in Ukraine, but also, probably, to go into the announced offensive in the spring and summer.
If the United States does not resume aid to Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces continue to lack critical artillery and air defense munitions, even poorly trained and poorly equipped Russian forces will be able to conduct successful offensive operations, ISW analysts conclude.
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