Bloomberg analysts point out that the drop in global oil prices and its surplus on the market create ideal conditions for a powerful sanction strike on the oil revenues of the aggressor country, Russia.
Points of attention
- The drop in global oil prices and surplus on the market create ideal conditions for sanction strike on Russia's oil revenues.
- Expanding sanctions against Russian tankers and halting oil supplies can significantly reduce the Russian Federation's income and impact the Kremlin's military capabilities.
- Western countries have the opportunity to further limit Russia's income from oil sales by targeting refineries in China, India, and Turkey.
- Reduction in Russian crude oil supplies could stabilize market dynamics and have a manageable price impact, while severely affecting the Kremlin's military treasury.
- OPEC has the potential to increase oil supplies, complicating the situation for Russia's oil revenues and potentially causing significant damage to the aggressor country's economy.
Why now is the perfect time to collapse the Kremlin's oil revenues
According to Julian Lee, an analyst of the publication on the oil market, the current mechanism of limiting the price of selling Russian oil has not led to a reduction in Russia's income.
Even with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reaching their highest level in a decade, Brent crude oil is still hovering below $75 a barrel and dipped below $70 in September. This is a quarter less than it was when the price cap was developed.
The authors of the material emphasize that the sanctions that were introduced against individual ships of the shadow Russian fleet for selling oil to bypass the introduced price ceiling have proved to be limited in their success.
These courts initially stood idle for months after being added to the US, UK or EU lists.
Recently, Moscow began to restore them to order. Their return had no consequences for those who received the ships in their ports.
How Western countries can further limit Russia's income from the sale of crude oil
Western sanctions are currently in effect against 90 oil tankers. However, the shadow fleet used by Russia has about 600 ships.
It is clear that the expansion of sanctions against these ships is not only necessary, but will make it possible to cause real damage to the income of the aggressor country from the sale of oil.
It would also be possible to reduce revenues from the sale of oil by Russia if refineries in China, India, and Turkey stopped receiving and processing Russian oil.
Analysts from the International Energy Agency note that a reduction in Russian crude oil supplies by 1 million barrels per day could stabilize supply and demand in the first half of 2025.
In a weak market, the price impact will be manageable. The impact on the Kremlin's military treasury will be much more devastating, the authors of the publication emphasize.
In addition, there is enough spare production capacity that could compensate for any loss of Russian barrels.
OPEC could theoretically increase supply by more than 5 million barrels per day if they wanted to.
