The attack of the Defense Forces of Ukraine is planned to be carried out by mid-July 2024, when Western fighter jets will arrive.
Ukraine will destroy the Crimean bridge
The Ukrainian military says it will destroy Vladimir Putin's favorite bridge by mid-July. That is, Ukraine has approximately 100 days to carry out a decisive attack on the Crimean Bridge.
According to The Sun, the structure, valued at several billion dollars, will be destroyed by a volley of Storm Shadow missiles, naval drones and Western F-16 fighter jets.
For Ukraine, this is the number one goal — a grotesque demonstration of 10 years of Russian occupation. Its destruction would be an important step in winning the war in the Black Sea, cutting off a major Russian military supply route and blocking Putin's war machine.
Brian Clark, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and director of the Center for Defense Concepts and Technologies, believes that Ukraine may well be able to do this, but it needs the right weapons.
The most protected bridge in the world can be destroyed by a massive air and sea attack in a big bang style.
Clark predicts that Storm Shadow missiles will be used for this attack. They will attack the bridge structure, and the sea drones will hit the foundations.
The SSU has already organized two brazen attacks on the bridge. Both times the bridge was repaired, and the damage was significant. Ukraine is planning a third attack this year.
If the Kerch Bridge is permanently destroyed, Moscow will lose its main military supply line. One goal is symbolic, the other goal is to prevent the replenishment of the Black Sea Fleet, cut off the Russian troops and drive them out of the peninsula.
A source close to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine confirmed to The Sun that "it is absolutely possible."
This is just a bridge, it has already been seriously damaged several times.
How exactly will the Armed Forces destroy the Crimean bridge
According to Clark, it is necessary to attack the strongly reinforced upper part of the bridge structures — the asphalt-concrete web. This requires 20 to 40 long-range missiles. The only ones in Ukraine's arsenal that meet the requirements are the supplied British Storm Shadow cruise missiles and the French counterpart SCALP.
This weapon is known for its accuracy and evasion skills against air defense systems. They are powerful enough to break the bridge structure and allow "Ukraine to attack the bridge from a sufficient distance to avoid Russian air defenses."
Storm Shadow can be launched from a distance of more than 320 km, which saves Ukraine from risking its precious MiG-29 and Su-24 aircraft fleet, which are needed to launch such missiles.
It is of great concern to Ukraine that it has only a small number of aircraft capable of carrying out this attack. If they use them and suffer losses, they will not be able to make further Storm Shadow attacks.
However, Ukraine can be helped by the F-16s, which should arrive within the next two months. Clark suggested that Kiev might have waited for their arrival before attacking the bridge. But there is a nuance — F-16s are not yet compatible with Storm Shadows.
Instead, the expert believes that F-16s may have to load GPS-guided munitions, "requiring them to get close to the target and risk themselves." That's the big problem Ukraine has right now — the mismatch between the weapons they have in their arsenal and the planes they have to launch them.
As soon as the upper structures of the bridge were broken by rockets, it is necessary to attack its base. For this, according to Clark, large unmanned explosive surface ships will be used — from two to four.
Ukrainian Sea Baby drones, which played an important role in sinking Putin's Black Sea Fleet, will be "too small, they are designed to punch holes in ships."
To destroy the base of the bridge, you'll need a larger unmanned ship, such as a modified remote-controlled barge or a small container ship. Ukraine could drive it under the tire of the bridge and blow it up. Russia would try to stop it, but it would be difficult to stop such a large vessel.
Synchronizing the attack of the drones to coordinate their strike on the bridge is incredibly difficult. Instead, "one huge bomb attached to a bridge abutment would be a better option."
Clark believes that the SSU will probably be behind the new brazen attack, as in the past.
The Crimean bridge will be the main target of DIU in the next few months
British journalists talked to their insiders in Ukrainian intelligence and learned that the DIU wants to carry out a third powerful attack on the Crimean bridge, which connects Russia with the occupied peninsula.
Anonymous sources from Budanov's entourage claim that his destruction is inevitable.
The successful strikes by Ukrainian intelligence and the SBU on Russian refineries were only a prelude to the main event of 2024.
As you know, for Ukraine this bridge is a hateful symbol of the illegal annexation of Crimea.
Kyril Budanov's team is convinced that his irreversible destruction will strengthen the Ukrainian people's campaign to liberate the peninsula and raise morale on and off the battlefield.
We will do it in the first half of 2024, — the DIU insider told reporters, and also emphasized that Kyrylo Budanov already has "most of the means to realize this goal."
