The incumbent US president, Democrat Joe Biden, is improving his position in key swing states. The results of the Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll indicate positive developments for Biden after five months of stable leadership of the former American president, Republican Donald Trump, in these states.
Biden's positions in key states are improving
Such changes occurred, particularly after the State of the Union address, which rallied Democrats and appeared to reduce concerns about the current US president's age.
Biden's improvement was significant in Wisconsin, where he leads Trump by one percentage point after trailing the former president by four percentage points in February. In Pennsylvania, the Democrats and Republicans are tied after Trump maintained an advantage of six percentage points last month. Biden and Trump also maintain equal positions in Michigan.
It's too early to tell whether the incumbent's improvement is a one-time blip or the start of a more sustained shift in the race. Additionally, Biden continues to trail Trump in four key states. However, a victory in the general vote in November in the so-called northern states of the Democratic "blue wall" could practically secure a second term for Biden.
More optimistic indicators of support for Biden appeared at a turning point in the election campaign, which has seemed predetermined for several months now. Both Biden and Trump already have enough delegates to become their party's presidential nominees officially.
Currently, Trump is facing a shortage of campaign funds and holding fewer rallies and events, while Biden has stepped up his re-election efforts and stormed swing states, including a trip to North Carolina on Tuesday, March 26.
The poll also found that voters feel better about the national economy, with a growing number of Americans who believe the U.S. economy is on the right track.
The new survey gives an idea of the participants' positions in the election race. Biden has narrowed or closed the gap with Trump in many swing states.
While the poll found Biden most competitive in blue-wall states, he also narrowed his lead over Trump in Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina from February. In the seventh state, Georgia, Trump increased his advantage. Biden is "storming" these states with campaign ads.
Trump continues to lead seven swing states, 47% to 43%. Including third-party candidates, Trump leads with 43%. Biden has 38% of voters' support, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — 9%, and Cornel West and Jill Stein — 1% each.
Most voters favourable to incumbent Nikki Haley said they would vote for Trump in November, a sign that he is winning over many supporters of his former rival in the GOP primary.
Biden gained more support after his "State of the Union" speech. The poll was conducted March 8, the day after Biden gave a powerful speech to Congress. More than a third of respondents said they had seen positive news about Biden recently, which is the highest indicator since the start of surveys in October last year.
The speech may have helped overcome one of Biden's campaign's most significant hurdles: concerns about his age. About six in 10 voters said the vice presidential choice would be more critical this year because Biden will be 81 and Trump 78 on the general election day. That's down seven percentage points from the February poll, conducted shortly after the US special counsel called Biden "an elderly man with a failing memory" in his report.
The perception of Biden's "State of the Union" speech was coloured by party affiliation. Biden's supporters called the speech energising, while Trump's supporters called it terrifying and angry.
Fewer than three in ten Trump supporters said their support for the former president was a vote against Biden. Nearly half of Biden voters said they would vote against Trump while supporting the incumbent. In Wisconsin, where Biden leads, six out of ten supporters said they would vote against Trump.
Voters see an improving economy but still tend to trust Trump more regarding economic policy. In particular, respondents in swing states trust Trump more than Biden on a wide range of spending issues, including interest rates and the availability of good jobs, a gap that underscores a severe challenge to the incumbent in a race where the economy is a significant issue in swing states.
However, according to several indicators, the survey showed that voters in "swing" states are gradually improving their perception of the state of the economy. The percentage of those who believe that the US economy is on the right track has increased by 6 points, from 26% last October to 32%.
The number of voters considering the economy the most critical issue decreased from 39% to 34%. At the same time, the share of those who consider immigration the most vital problem almost doubled to 17%.
