According to Bloomberg calculations, if China and the US start a full-scale war over Taiwan, it could cost $10 trillion, which is about 10% of the world's GDP.
The war for Taiwan could turn into a disaster for humanity
According to the journalists, neither the Russian-Ukrainian war, the coronavirus pandemic, nor the global financial crisis can compare with the consequences of a potential armed conflict between China and the United States.
The Bloomberg team warns that the possibility of developing such a scenario is quite real against the background of strengthening China's position on the international stage and Taiwan's growing sense of national identity.
The strained relations between Beijing and Washington also fuel the fire.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine and a shortage of semiconductors as the world reopens from Covid-19 lockdowns give a small glimpse of what's at stake for the global economy. The consequences of a war in the Taiwan Strait would be much greater.
Taiwan produces most of the world's advanced semiconductors and many microcircuits.
We should also not forget that the Taiwan Strait is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world.
Bloomberg predicts two scenarios for a war over Taiwan
According to journalists, the first option is an invasion of China, which involves the USA in a local conflict.
The second is a blockade that prevents Taiwan from trading with the rest of the world.
In whatever scenario this conflict unfolds, Taiwan's economy will likely be destroyed. The impact on GDP can reach 40%.
A population and industrial base concentrated on the coast will add human and economic costs. If relations with major trading partners are shut down and there is no access to advanced semiconductors, China's GDP will take a 16.7% hit.
As for the US, the fall in their GDP may reach 6.7%.
According to experts' forecasts, GDP will fall by 10.2% for the world as a whole. It is also indicated that the economies of South Korea, Japan and other East Asian countries will suffer the most.
